Bitcoin to reach $80,000: Bitwise, US government give green light for Bitfinex to recover hacked funds

• Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan noted that the company still expects Bitcoin's price to rise above $80K in Q4.
• Bitcoin's potential to reach the $80K target depends on upcoming US elections and a lack of market surprises.
• Bitfinex could be the only recipient of 119,754 BTC recovered from past theft.

Bitcoin (BTC) could reach $80,000 by year-end if the market sees no surprises and the upcoming elections do not affect investor sentiment, according to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Matt Hougan. Meanwhile, the US government considers Bitfinex the sole victim and potential recipient of 119,754 BTC seized from hackers.

Bitwise speculates Bitcoin could hit $80K price by year-end

In a memo to investors on Wednesday, Hougan stated that the company still maintains its positive outlook of Bitcoin rising to $80,000. However, Hougan noted that three key factors must play out for the top cryptocurrency to reach the stated price target:

• Politicians not manipulating market sentiment as the US elections draw near.
• Additional stimulus from China and another 50 basis points of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
• Lack of market surprises.

The upcoming elections have seen mixed support from the crypto community in recent weeks. On the one hand, several crypto leaders suggest that a win by Republican candidate Donald Trump would stir bullish momentum for Bitcoin and the crypto market, while a win by Democratic candidate Kamala Harris could lead to a bearish trend.

Bernstein analysts are major supporters of this notion, speculating that Bitcoin will shoot past the $80K price level should Trump win. Conversely, they predict that a Harris victory would send Bitcoin tumbling down to around $40K.

However, Hougan stated that the key thing isn't the elections but for politicians to step aside from manipulating the market.

"To thrive, [B]itcoin doesn't need politicians. It just needs them to get out of the way," Hougan stated in the post.

He also noted that an additional 50 bps rate cut by the end of the year and Chinese fiscal stimulus could raise Bitcoin's price.

Lastly, the market has to see little or no surprises in Q4 for Bitcoin to sustain the uptrend. Some of the potential surprises Hougan highlighted include hacks, lawsuits and locked tokens or dormant wallets entering into the market.

However, judging from the previous quarters and recent events, market surprises may be hard to avoid.

A potential black swan is the US government's latest filing, which suggests that crypto exchange Bitfinex could be the sole victim and recipient of the recovered 119,754 BTC hackers stole in 2016.

"The government is not aware of any person who qualifies as a victim under the CVRA [Crime Victims' Rights Act] or for restitution under the MVRA [Mandatory Victim Restitution Act], beyond perhaps Bitfinex...," the US Attorney for the District of Columbia said in a filing on Tuesday.

Bitfinex Victims Right Notification

Bitfinex was the victim of a hack in August 2016, which resulted in the loss of 119,754 BTC, worth $71 million at the time. The tokens would be worth about $7.4 billion based on prices on Wednesday.

Following the breach, Bitfinex distributed losses among all users, issuing BFX tokens to compensate for their losses, and managed to recover about 80% of the stolen funds over time.

In 2023, two individuals, Lichtenstein and Morgan, were charged for laundering a portion of the stolen Bitcoins. The filing also states that both of them pleaded guilty to the charges.