Ripple Price Forecast: XRP clings to $1.25 support as Binance reserves hit five-year low

• XRP bulls gather around $1.25, eyeing a short-term recovery attempt as the broader crypto market consolidates.
• Binance's XRP reserves fall sharply, reaching the lowest level since 2021 following the resumption of withdrawals on the exchange.
• XRP's technical outlook remains bearish, with the MACD in negative territory and the RSI holding in the bearish region.

Ripple (XRP) trades sideways on Tuesday, between the psychological $1.20 support and structural resistance around $1.32. The remittance token appears to be building recovery momentum above $1.25, as traders consider taking on more risk against the backdrop of last week's historic $6.3 billion Binance hack.

The situation on the exchange remains largely contained after Binance announced it will cover the losses, protecting its users; however, investors in the broader crypto market remain concerned about the short- and medium-term outlook.

XRP is down near 19% over the last month and 24% from its September high around $1.67. This means the support range toward $1.20 is crucial for a steady uptrend to resume; otherwise, the sell-off could extend toward the year-to-date low near $0.98.

“The Binance hack continues to dominate the discussion. All things considered, the fact that the situation remains contained is remarkable given the reported scale of the incident,” Crypto Finance said in an emailed analysis report, adding, “It is arguably the type of event that very few parties could have absorbed.”

XRP Binance reserves hit multi-year lows

XRP Balances on Binance fell sharply, reaching their lowest levels since 2021. The notable outflows occurred after the resumption of withdrawals on Binance. Binance suspended withdrawals to contain the security breach.

Data shows Binance reserves dropped to roughly 2.38 billion XRP as of Monday, from 2.47 billion XRP last Friday. This depicts a decline of approximately 92.36 million XRP over three days, equivalent to roughly 3.74% of the total supply.

Despite the drop, the remaining XRP reserves on the exchange remain significant, suggesting that the resumption of withdrawals did not trigger large-scale outflows.

“The most notable aspect of this data is that XRP reserves have reached levels not seen on the exchange since 2021, reflecting a continued reduction in the amount of XRP held on Binance,” Arab Chain wrote in CryptoQuants’ Insights segment.

If the trend continues, it could reduce the amount of XRP available for sale on Binance, potentially easing sell-side pressure as long as demand remains stable.

“We believe the current weakness in crypto is more reflective of the broader macro environment than of the hack itself, although the latter is clearly adding pressure,” Crypto Finance continued.

Technical analysis: XRP bulls defend key support area

XRP trades at $1.25, holding below all major Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and the active SuperTrend line, which keeps the near-term bias bearish. Price remains under the downward resistance trendline reference near $1.29, suggesting rallies are still being rejected beneath prior structural supply. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 38 signals weak momentum rather than outright oversold conditions.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains marginally negative, suggesting downside pressure persists without strong impulsive follow-through for now.

Initial resistance emerges near the descending trendline area at $1.29, followed by the 100-day EMA at $1.32 and the 50-day EMA at $1.34, which together form a dense cap overhead. Higher up, the 200-period EMA at $1.36 and the SuperTrend line around $1.39 are likely to act as stronger barriers if a corrective bounce extends, with bearish bias expected to persist while XRP trades beneath this stacked resistance band.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)