EUR/USD remains below 1.1600 as US-EU trade deal appears to favor US economy
- EUR/USD may lose ground as the US Dollar receives support from trade optimism in the United States.
- The US and EU have reached a framework trade agreement imposing 15% tariffs on most European goods.
- France condemned the US-EU trade agreement, calling it a 'dark day' for Europe.
EUR/USD moves little after registering more than 1% losses in the previous session, trading around 1.1590 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair faced challenges as the US Dollar (USD) rose on trade optimism, driven by the trade deal between the United States (US) and the European Union (EU).
The US and EU reached a framework trade agreement on Sunday that sets 15% tariffs on most European goods, taking effect on August 1. This deal has ended a months-long stand-off, per Bloomberg.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Sunday that the bloc agreed not to impose retaliatory tariffs and pledged $600 billion in investment in the US on top of existing expenditures.
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Peter Kazimir said on Monday that there is "no significant change" compelling him to act in September, noting that it would require "clear signs of a deterioration in the labor market" to prompt a move. Kazimir acknowledged that the US-EU trade deal has reduced uncertainty, though its impact on inflation remains unclear.
France condemned on Monday, stating that the framework trade agreement was a "dark day" for Europe, arguing that the bloc had capitulated to US President Donald Trump by accepting an unbalanced deal that imposed a headline 15% tariff on EU goods. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned that the agreed tariffs would cause "significant" damage to his country's economy.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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