USD/CHF weakens to near 0.7950 ahead of US CPI inflation release
- USD/CHF softens to around 0.7965 in Tuesday’s early European session.
- Tariff uncertainty and persistent geopolitical tensions support the Swiss Franc, a safe-haven currency.
- All eyes will be on the US consumer inflation figures later on Tuesday.
The USD/CHF pair trades on a negative note near 0.7965 during the early European session on Tuesday. Persistent trade-related uncertainties and geopolitical risks boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US consumer inflation figures will take center stage later on Tuesday.
Bloomberg reported late Monday that US President Donald Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Russia if President Vladimir Putin does not agree to a deal to end his invasion of Ukraine in 50 days. Trump further stated that the levies would come in the form of secondary tariffs, without providing details.
Meanwhile, Trump signaled he was open to talking about tariffs with the European Union, while Japan is reportedly trying to schedule high-level talks with the US this Friday. The tariff uncertainty and cautious mood ahead of key US inflation data might underpin the CHF against the US Dollar (USD) for the time being.
The US June CPI report could offer some hints about the future path for US interest rates. Analysts expect US inflation to have picked up slightly last month due to the impact of Trump's tariffs. The headline US CPI is expected to show an increase of 2.7% YoY in June, while the core CPI is projected to show a 3.0% rise during the same report period. If the report shows a hotter-than-estimated inflation outcome, this could help limit the Greenback’s losses.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
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