Forex Today: Markets cling to a cautious stance ahead of US producer inflation data
Here is what you need to know on Friday, November 13:
The US Dollar (USD) Index, which tracks the greenback's performance against a basket of six major currencies, stays in a consolidation phase above 103.00 after reaching its highest level since April 2025 at the end of a three-day rally. The European economic calendar will feature September Trade Balance data and a revision to the third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth on Friday. Later in the day, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish Producer Price Index (PPI) data for October.
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.66% | 0.84% | 0.91% | 0.96% | 1.00% | 0.34% | 1.94% | |
| EUR | -0.66% | 0.19% | 0.28% | 0.32% | 0.45% | -0.30% | 1.29% | |
| GBP | -0.84% | -0.19% | 0.08% | 0.11% | 0.26% | -0.50% | 1.09% | |
| JPY | -0.91% | -0.28% | -0.08% | 0.03% | 0.02% | -0.56% | 0.96% | |
| CAD | -0.96% | -0.32% | -0.11% | -0.03% | 0.02% | -0.64% | 1.01% | |
| AUD | -1.00% | -0.45% | -0.26% | -0.02% | -0.02% | -0.75% | 0.75% | |
| NZD | -0.34% | 0.30% | 0.50% | 0.56% | 0.64% | 0.75% | 1.61% | |
| CHF | -1.94% | -1.29% | -1.09% | -0.96% | -1.01% | -0.75% | -1.61% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
In the absence of high-impact data releases on Thursday, the USD benefited from risk-aversion and continued to gather strength against its rivals. At the same time, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield climbed above 5% on hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials and further supported to the currency.
In a Truth Social post on Thursday, US President Donald Trump said that they don't "need a deal with Iran." Oil prices edged higher following this remark and the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained more than 2% on the day. In the meantime, Wall Street's main indexes remained under modest bearish pressure after the opening bell, following the news of Nvidia's (NVDA) longtime CEO and co-founder Jensen Huang resigning as CEO in the face of board scrutiny over several affairs. Early Friday, US stock index futures trade marginally lower.
Fed's Williams flags resilient US economy but stresses persistent inflation risks
New York Fed President John Williams delivered a speech that is modestly more hawkish relative to the historical average, with a 7/10 FXS Speechtracker score versus a 6.1/10 baseline, underscoring a resilient and robust US economy that is strengthening but not overheating. The emphasis that inflation remains “stubbornly persistent and elevated” and that the central bank “still has work to do” to reach the right monetary policy stance reinforced a data-dependent but clearly tightening-biased tone.
Similarly, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly emphasized that while AI is only modestly adding to current inflation, technology-driven momentum and sticky services prices heighten upside inflation risks. The focus on a “bias” toward further tightening, comfort with a September hike, and the view that inflation pressures are “up, not down” underscored a Fed stance that prioritizes bringing inflation down even as potential future AI-led productivity gains are acknowledged as a possible disinflationary force.
Strategists at National Bank of Canada underline that the Dollar “remains supported by persistent inflation and the prospect of further Fed tightening.” They note that “following October’s pause, another firm CPI report reinforces our expectation for tighter policy before year-end,” adding that a “deterioration in global risk appetite could provide further support through safe-haven demand.”
Gold lost more than 2.5% on Thursday and touched its weakest level since October 2025 near $3,850. The precious metal corrects higher on Friday but remains below $4,000.
EUR/USD stages a rebound in the European session and trades above 1.1050. Nevertheless, the pair remains on track to post weekly losses.
GBP/USD moves sideways in a tight channel below 1.3250 on Friday after posting losses for three consecutive days. On a weekly basis, the pair is down more than 0.8%.
USD/JPY rose to its highest level since early September above 160.00 in the Asian trading hours but corrected sharply heading into the European session. At the time of press, the pair was virtually unchanged on the day at 159.80. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said on Friday that the government is in close contact with US financial authorities on the currency market and reiterated that officials will strive to preserve an orderly foreign exchange market.
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
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