GBP/USD Price Forecast: Consolidates below mid-1.3500s; bullish potential seems intact
- GBP/USD is seen consolidating as traders await this week’s key macro releases from the UK and the US.
- The JPY-led USD selling remains unabated, supporting spot prices during the Asian session on Tuesday.
- The bullish technical setup backs the case for the resumption of the recent well-established uptrend.
The GBP/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's modest gains and oscillates in a range below mid-1.3500s during the Asian session on Tuesday. The downside, however, remains cushioned as the US Dollar (USD) selling remains unabated on the back of a broadly firmer Japanese Yen (JPY).
That said, firming US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets, along with geopolitical uncertainties stemming from escalating US-Iran tensions, act as a tailwind for the USD and cap the GBP/USD pair. Traders also seem hesitant ahead of this week's release of the monthly UK GDP and the latest US inflation figures.
From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD pair holds a mild bullish bias above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. Moreover, spot prices trade above a dense Fibonacci support stack led by the 38.2% retracement level of the June-August upswing, at 1.3471. Adding to this, a modestly positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and a Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 54 hint that upside momentum is constructive but not yet aggressive.
Meanwhile, the 23.6% retracement at 1.3549 sits just overhead as the next cap. A sustained strength higher would open the way toward further recovery in the broader range. On the downside, initial support is provided by the 200-period SMA at 1.3498, followed by the 38.2% retracement at 1.3471, with deeper floors at the 50.0% level near 1.3408 and the 61.8% retracement around 1.3344 if selling pressure intensifies.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
GBP/USD 4-hour chart
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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