British Pound climbs as Trump-calmed tensions, lifting risk mood

• Trump’s intervention cools Middle East fears, supporting equity risk appetite.
• JOLTS jump reinforces US labor resilience before key services data.
• BoE hawks warn inflation battle may require faster action.

The Pound Sterling rose by some 0.19% on Tuesday as traders remained optimistic about a peace deal between the US and Iran, even though geopolitical uncertainty remains. The GBP/USD trades at around 1.3470 after bouncing off daily lows of 1.3446.

GBP/USD gains as softer oil offsets resilient US jobs data

The financial markets remain focused on geopolitics. The intervention of US President Trump on the Israel-Hezbollah conflict tempered investors' fears, which are driving US equity markets to re-test all-time highs. Therefore, Oil prices fell, as shown by the US crude Oil benchmark WTI, which was down 0.40% at $92.07.

Nevertheless, traders are still cautious due to the fragility of the ceasefire between the US and Iran.

Data from the US showed that the labour market remains resilient, as the Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) rose in April to its highest level in nearly 2 years. Vacancies rose to 7.62 million from 6.89 million in March, exceeding forecasts of 6.88 million. Worth noting that layoffs fell to 1.7 million or 1.1%.

The data reassures Fed policymakers of the solidity of the labour market. Cleveland Fed Beth Hammack said that “job data points to stability” and that the “unemployment rate is around full employment levels.” She remains highly concerned about inflation, saying that the Fed may need to act “soon” if inflation doesn’t abate.

Across the pond, Bank of England policymakers crossed the wires. Megan Green was hawkish, saying that she sees a growing case for rate hikes, saying that “the speed of the response is arguably just as important as its size.”

Earlier, Governor Bailey said the public must be given confidence that the central bank will drive inflation to its 2% target.

In the meantime, money markets had priced in a less hawkish BoE, with traders expecting the bank to hold borrowing costs steady at the June 18 meeting. However, towards the end of the year, investors had already priced in 40 basis points of easing, according to Prime Terminal data.

On Wednesday, the UK schedule will feature the BoE Monetary Policy Report Hearings. In the US, investors will eye Factory Orders, the ISM Services PMI, and the Fed’s Beige Book.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3475, holding a mildly bullish near-term bias as it remains above the latest triple simple moving average (SMA) proxy around 1.3449 and continues to respect the broader upward-support trend structure originating near 1.3159. The pair is still trading beneath the key downward resistance trend-line break area at 1.3600, suggesting upside is capped for now, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index hovering just above 50 around 50.9 hints at modest but not overstretched bullish momentum.

On the downside, immediate support is seen around the 1.3475 area, with the clustered triple SMA support near 1.3449 reinforcing this nearby floor; a break below there would expose the upward trend-line break region at 1.3354, ahead of the more distant structural base drawn from the 1.3159 area. On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the downward resistance trend line around 1.3600, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to reopen a more convincing advance in the broader uptrend.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)