GBP/JPY is looking for direction near 202.50 after rejection at 203.00
- The Pound remains steady right below multi-year highs, at 203.00.
- The Yen remains on the defensive amid expectations that Takaichi will bring Abenomics back
- Japan's finance minister Kato warned he will closely monitor FX markets and provided some support to the Yen.
The British Pound consolidates in the mid-range of the 202.00s on Tuesday, following a rejection from all-time highs at multi-year highs near 203.00, following comments from Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato, who affirmed that he will closely monitor foreign exchange markets.
The Yen plummeted more than 300 pips on Monday’s early trading after the victory of the pro-stimulus LDP candidate, Sanae Takaichi, who is expected to boost fiscal spending and hamper the Bank of Japan’s plans to tighten its monetary policy.
Yen weakness raises speculation about intervention
Finance Minister Kato said on Tuesday that it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals and that the Japanese authority will “closely monitor” currency moves. These comments pose a veiled threat of a potential intervention and have contributed to providing some footing for the Yen:
In the UK, recent data revealed a significant slowdown in the services sector, and a survey by the Bank of England showed that British businesses’ hiring plans fell to their lowest levels since 2020.
These figures have raised expectations that the Bank of England might be forced to cut rates again. In that sense, the minutes of the last BoE FPC committee, and BoE’s Chief Economist Huw Pill’s comments will be carefully analysed to confirm those expectations on Wednesday.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
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