USD/CAD weakens to below 1.3750, Canadian jobs report in focus
- USD/CAD softens to around 1.3735 in Friday’s early Asian session.
- Fed Governor Waller has reportedly emerged as the top contender to succeed embattled Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
- Traders await the Canadian July jobs report, which is due later on Friday.
The USD/CAD pair trades in negative territory around 1.3735 during the early Asian session on Friday. The Greenback edges lower against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) as traders boost bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates in September after weak US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. The Canadian jobs report for July will be in the spotlight later on Friday.
The US July jobs report, released last Friday, showed fewer job gains than expected and sharp downward revisions to previous months, prompting traders to raise bets on more interest rate cuts than previously expected this year. Fed funds futures traders are now pricing in a 94% chance of a 25 basis point (bps) cut at the September meeting, up from 48% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Additionally, the soft US Initial Jobless Claims contribute to the USD's downside. Data by the US Department of Labour (DOL) on Thursday showed that the number of US citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance increased to 226K for the week ending August 2. This figure came in above the market consensus of 221K and was higher than the previous week’s 218K
Traders will keep an eye on US President Donald Trump’s plans to replace Fed Chair Powell. According to Bloomberg, Fed Governor Christopher Waller is emerging as a top candidate to serve as the central bank’s chair among Trump’s advisers.
Meanwhile, an extended downside in crude oil prices due to rising OPEC+ supply and worries of weaker global demand could weigh on the commodity-linked Loonie and help limit the pair’s losses. It’s worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US, and lower crude oil prices tend to have a negative impact on the CAD value.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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