1 Wall Street Analyst Says Nvidia Will Double From Here. Are They Right?

Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock continues to spiral following the news that Jensen Huang has stepped down as CEO.

On Friday, even after investors had a full day to digest the news, Nvidia stock was trading down 3.6% around noon as investors continued to assess the fallout. Shares of Nvidia are now down a third from their peak a little more than a month ago after sliding first on concerns about rising interest rates pressuring its neocloud partners and then on fears of a data center crackdown following the midterm elections.

The question now on the minds of millions of Nvidia shareholders and prospective investors is what it means for the stock. Nvidia is now undeniably cheap according to conventional metrics, trading at a forward P/E of roughly 11 with still blockbuster growth, but the company is now in uncharted waters.

Huang exercised exacting control over the company, imposing a flat organizational structure with roughly 60 direct reports and CFO Colette Kress being the only other "C-level" executive. Kress is now the interim CEO while the board searches both internally and externally for a permanent replacement.

Additionally, Nvidia and Huang face investigations in Washington into any violations of chip export rules and related national security concerns. Huang has agreed to testify before Congress.

There's a wide range of potential paths for the stock from here, but at least one Wall Street analyst is still highly bullish on the stock.

Image source: Nvidia.

Wells Fargo thinks Nvidia could double

Wells Fargo released a note this morning saying that Huang's resignation takes Nvidia one step closer to a clearing event, meaning it forces likely sellers out of the market and could signal a bottom. It also noted a risk from an investigation related to national security concerns.

However, the bank sees little risk of demand destruction and is confident in its estimates going forward. It reiterated an overweight rating on the stock and a price target of $300.

Wells Fargo wasn't the only one staying bullish on Nvidia. Rosenblatt lowered its price target from $390 to $300, but maintained a buy rating on the stock, saying it expected Nvidia employees, suppliers, and customers would rally around the stock. It also said Nvidia's fundamentals remained solid, but gave it a lower valuation following the leadership crisis.

Can Nvidia hit $300?

Nvidia is currently trading at $160/share, and reaching $300 would represent a gain of 88%, nearly a double. Nvidia has never been close to $300 a share, reaching an all-time high of $243.37 in October.

For the company to get there without Huang in the next year seems unlikely. Nvidia's business should be secure for the next year or two, but the uncertainty hanging over the stock, both in terms of leadership and an investigation around national security and export implications, is significant.

That's a good reason for the stock to trade at a discount. Additionally, it's going to be difficult for Nvidia's next CEO to replicate Huang's set of qualities, as he had forged a deep network of relationships with suppliers, customers, and government entities, and he excelled as a strategic visionary, mapping out its AI hardware years in advance.

The support from Wall Street is a good sign for the stock, and Nvidia's valuation is cheap, but getting to $300, which would imply a market cap of $7.5 trillion, seems unlikely in the next year.

Nvidia may get there eventually, but it will have to find the right leader, restore investor confidence in its ability to maintain its industry dominance, and deal with any federal investigation and related consequences. That won't be easy.

Wells Fargo is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Jeremy Bowman has positions in Nvidia and Wells Fargo. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.