Intel, Arm, and Marvell Have Each Been Cut in Half Since June. Only 1 Is a Stock I'd Buy Now.

Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), Arm Holdings (NASDAQ:ARM), and Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL) all set record closes in June. Five months later, each stock is worth less than half as much.

Intel closed at $58.27 on Nov. 4, off around 59% from $140.94, its record close on June 22. Arm ended that day at $191.80, around 56% under its June 18 record close, and Marvell finished at $159.80, about 50% below where it closed on June 4.

All three fell between around 4% and 7% on Nov. 4 alone, then slid further on Nov. 5. Investors were weighing whether Democrats' midterm wins might slow the build-out of artificial intelligence data centers, especially after Texas elected a governor who campaigned for a moratorium on new ones.

Falls this steep can make all three look like bargains. But each stock is still up over 40% in 2026. And only one of them expects its sales growth to keep speeding up, even as its stock got cheaper.

Marvell is that one, and it's the only one of the three I'd buy right now.

Image source: Getty Images.

Intel's PC problem

Intel's third quarter was strong, with revenue up 21% year over year. The problem is the outlook it gave on Oct. 29. Intel sees non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings of $0.25 per share for the fourth quarter, under half the $0.52 it earned in the third quarter.

PCs are the biggest reason. Higher memory prices have pushed up what new PCs cost, and Intel expects revenue in its PC chip segment to drop over 20% from the third quarter. Its chief financial officer, David Zinsner, sees the weakness lasting until at least mid-2027.

Yes, demand for Intel's server chips still tops what it can supply. But at around $54, Intel stock trades at around 36 times the earnings expected for 2026 and about 30 times the earnings expected for 2027.

Is Arm's royalty slowdown priced in?

Arm reported its fiscal 2027 second quarter (the three months ended Sept. 30) on the evening of Nov. 4. Revenue climbed 27% year over year to $1.44 billion, and its adjusted earnings per share increased 33% to $0.52.

The figure I'd follow most closely, though, is royalty revenue (the fees Arm gets for every Arm-based chip its partners ship). Royalties grew just 8% from a year earlier to $670 million, a sharp slowdown from 22% growth in fiscal Q1. Arm said memory prices hit the smartphone market and offset some of its gains elsewhere.

Licensing revenue, however, jumped 50% to $773 million, and management called licensing an important leading indicator of future royalty growth.

Sure, that might prove true. But at around $170, Arm stock trades at around 56 times its expected earnings for next fiscal year (ending March 2028). Even after a drop of around 60%, investors paying that price are arguably relying on royalties to speed up again soon.

Marvell's sales are speeding up

Marvell's numbers are going the other way. Its revenue growth has climbed each quarter of fiscal 2027 so far, from 28% year over year in the first quarter to 37% in the second (through Aug. 1). On Nov. 2, Marvell said fiscal third-quarter revenue is tracking with its $3.15 billion forecast, now within 2% either way. That'd be around 52% above the year-ago quarter. What's more, Marvell's August forecast called for $1.10 in adjusted earnings per share, up around 45% from $0.76 the year before.

The same day, Marvell agreed to buy optical parts maker Lumentum Holdings (NASDAQ:LITE) in an all-stock deal that values Lumentum at around $115 billion, including its debt. Lumentum shareholders would get 4.5 Marvell shares for every Lumentum share, leaving today's Marvell shareholders holding around two-thirds of the combined company. Closing is expected in the first half of 2028, pending shareholder and regulatory approval.

At around $141, Marvell stock trades at around 19 times the earnings expected for fiscal 2028 (ending January 2028), based on Marvell's business alone.

Which one would I buy?

Intel's server chips and Arm's licensing business are each doing well. But Intel's profits are set to fall steeply this quarter, and Arm's royalty growth just slowed to 8%. At today's prices, I think both stocks still cost too much for these problems.

Marvell is the only one of the three whose latest forecast calls for its sales growth to speed up again. And based on next year's expected earnings, its price-to-earnings ratio is around a third of Arm's.

In the end, I think Marvell stock is worth buying here, maybe a bit at a time as the Lumentum deal moves toward closing.

Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Arm Holdings, Intel, Lumentum, and Marvell Technology. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.