Prediction: Archer Aviation Triples Its Revenue by 2028. Here's What That Would Mean for the Stock.

Let me begin with what seems like a pretty easy prediction: By the end of 2028, Archer Aviation (NYSE: ACHR) will more than triple its revenue. In fact, if it continues on the path that it's on, Archer's present-day revenue will explode -- possibly growing by four digits. Here's how.

What the next two fiscal years could look like for Archer

Currently, Archer is still living through its pre-certification days. Indeed, while its Midnight aircraft can fly, it hasn't gotten the FAA approval needed for full-scale commercial passenger operations. That's why Archer has barely squeezed out $7 million in revenue over the last 12 months.

Data by YCharts

As shown in the chart above, analysts have high expectations for Archer. Between today and the end of 2028, it's generally believed that Archer will grow revenue to about $506 million.

This is, of course, a forecast, not a guarantee. Archer may earn less revenue than expected in 2028; it may earn more. But given some of the company's recent activities, I believe there's good reason to believe Archer could actually exceed these expectations.

For starters, there's Archer's planned acquisition of three subsidiaries from Boeing, one of which is a profitable drone business that generates more than $200 million in annual revenue. If this deal closes, Archer will secure about two-fifths of that $500 million in annual revenue.

There's also Archer's partnership with Anduril. Last November, Archer announced an agreement to supply electric powertrains for Anduril's Omen, an autonomous aircraft developed in partnership with a defense company based in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The UAE has, in fact, committed to purchasing 50 Omen systems.

Image source: Archer Aviation.

Meanwhile, in July, Archer and Anduril unveiled a jointly developed autonomous aircraft platform with two versions: Thunder, designed for military operations, and Halo, for commercial.

Finally, there's Archer's electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) business, arguably its future bread and butter. Archer has been steadily working through the regulatory process to get its eVTOL Midnight certified for commercial operations. Although no definite date has been established for when Midnight will carry paying passengers, the progress it has made has me convinced it will carry that certification in 2028, if not before.

What does this mean for Archer stock?

All of these -- the drone business, the partnership with Anduril, and its own passenger commercial operation -- could combine to generate $500 million in revenue in 2028. That doesn't, however, mean that Archer stock will then soar over that same period.

The sad truth is that $500 million in annual revenue is not enough to plug Archer's spending hole. Last quarter, Archer's operating expenses totaled about $284 million, more than half of its projected annual revenue two years from now.

Two years from now, however, Archer could be a much stronger business, with a certified Midnight and multiple sources of revenue. Aggressive investors with an appetite for risk might want to consider adding some shares today, before that potential growth is reflected in the price.

Steven Porrello has positions in Archer Aviation. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Boeing. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.