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SpaceX Still Trades Above Its IPO Price. Could Anthropic Do the Same?

Source The Motley Fool

Key Points

Anthropic just leaked some key details from its prospectus.
Anticipation for its IPO is building, and SpaceX offers a good comparison.
After a bumpy ride, SpaceX appears to be settling slightly ahead of its IPO price, which is good news for Anthropic.
10 stocks we like better than Space Exploration Technologies ›

Anthropic took one step closer to going public this week.

The fast-growing AI start-up, best known as the parent of Claude, leaked details from its S-1 prospectus to Reuters on Tuesday night.

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The report shows Anthropic's key financial numbers through the end of 2025, including that it had a $42 billion loss last year, though $34 billion of that was related to paper accounting adjustments based on the rising value of convertible debt as the company's valuation soars.

Anthropic is now expected to go public in November, and raise around $100 billion at a valuation of $2 trillion. For investors looking for an analog, there's an obvious one here: Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX).

SpaceX was the first of three highly anticipated blockbuster IPOs, including Anthropic and OpenAI, to go public, and its experience in its first months could be informative for Anthropic.

A hand holding up a card that says "IPO".

Image source: Getty Images.

SpaceX's post-IPO journey

SpaceX, guided by CEO Elon Musk, soared out of the gate after pricing its IPO at $135 a share on June 12. By June 16, just two sessions later, the stock hit an intraday peak at $225.64. That kind of a surge for an overhyped stock isn't unusual, but then a predictable thing happened.

The stock crashed over the next month-and-a-half, eventually bottoming out at $104.83 on Aug. 3. Since then, the stock has stabilized following a strong second-quarter earnings report, now trading about 10% up from its IPO price, or even with the $150 it opened at on June 12.

In other words, SpaceX has been able to sustain its $2 trillion valuation, despite going public with a price-to-sales ratio of around 100, and that's good news for Anthropic.

What it means for Anthropic

As a stock, Anthropic has some advantages over SpaceX. It's growing much faster than SpaceX, with revenue up more than 1,000% in its second quarter to $11.5 billion. Its valuation is also lower than SpaceX's, and is likely to fall rapidly given its growth rate.

However, SpaceX seemed to earn a premium in part because of Musk's leadership and his habit of making big promises, including colonizing Mars.

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, on the other hand, may be best known for his doomsday commentary on AI and his calls for better safeguards and slowing down frontier development. According to Reuters, the company said that one of its risks was that it could face legal claims over rogue AI agents. It also said in the prospectus that its AI models have been used for self-harm and acts of violence.

It's worth keeping in mind the safety issues and related risks associated with Anthropic and other AI labs, but the success of SpaceX's IPO bodes well for Anthropic. If Anthropic reports strong results in its third quarter, we're likely to see it hit a $2 trillion valuation when it goes public.

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