Dow drops 631 points as the Fed hikes — but futures are rebounding: what's next for US stocks?

US stocks closed lower Wednesday after the Federal Reserve delivered its first rate hike since July 2023, with the Dow falling 631 points (-1.21%) to 51,461.90 — at one point down more than 900 points intraday — and the S&P 500 slipping 0.45% to 7,551.81, its second straight decline and a close below 7,565 that marks a six-week low. The twist: Asia-session futures are already rebounding, with the S&P 500 CFD back at 7,607.8 (+0.55%). The question now is whether that bounce is real — and 7,500 is where the answer lives.

Sector performance split sharply: energy fell 3.0% as Brent sank 2.7% to $105.83, financials lost 1.6%, while semiconductors held up — Intel gained more than 4% — and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite finished essentially flat.

The 25bp hike to 3.75% ~ 4.00% was never the story — it was priced at roughly 90% going in. The damage came from what accompanied it:

• The dot plot: 16 of 18 officials expect at least one more hike this year (12 saw one more, four saw two or a single 50bp move, only two saw none), lifting the median 2026 projection to 4.1% from 3.8% in June;

• The projections: PCE inflation now seen at 3.7% for 2026, with a return to the 2% target pushed out to 2029; growth revised up to 2.3%;

• The pricing: futures now assign roughly 50% odds to an October hike.

Adding to the pressure: August retail sales beat at +1.2% (versus +0.8% expected), with core sales up 1.4% — a resilient consumer that, counterintuitively, strengthens the case for more tightening. Core PPI, at +0.2%, offered the only softer note.

* Chart source: official TradingView chart screenshot, OANDA data feed (S&P 500 index CFD), captured 17 September 2026, 09:46 am (New York time).

* Chart source: official TradingView chart screenshot, OANDA data feed (Nasdaq 100 index CFD), captured 17 September 2026, 09:49 am (New York time).

The structure has weakened — a 50/200-day moving average death cross has formed — and analysts broadly agree on where the battleground sits:

• Support: 7,503 ~ 7,500 (this former resistance, now the pivotal floor), then 7,400, with a break opening 7,314 ~ 7,294, the 200-day average near 7,200, and potentially 7,000;

• Resistance: 7,600 (just lost), the 50-day average near 7,610, then 7,700; a decisive close above 7,760 ~ 7,770 would confirm a bullish flag.

The sell-side views bracket the range: BofA's technical strategist Paul Ciana says the longer-term uptrend stays intact as long as 7,504 ~ 7,500 holds — with the bank's long-term targets above 8,000 — but calls a break below a "major technical breakdown." Barron's, citing chart work, frames a September close in the 7,500 area as an ordinary 5% pullback that could turn the old ceiling into "a solid floor" before a Q4 rally. On the bearish side, BofA's chief equity strategist Savita Subramanian keeps a 7,400 year-end target — among the lowest on the Street — and warns the market is "overdue for a pullback." Bulls like Tallbacken's Michael Purves (year-end 8,500) point to earnings strength as the offset.

• 08:30 ET today: initial jobless claims (208K expected, 206K prior) — the first labour-market read since the hike;

• Earnings: FedEx and Nike report today, offering the first corporate evidence on whether the real economy can carry higher-for-longer rates;

• The bigger picture: with October hike odds near 50% and 2% inflation deferred to 2029, every data point between now and the next FOMC becomes a referendum on the 7,500 floor.

Related reads: for the currency side of the Fed decision, see Dollar index tops 100 for the first time since July; for the set-up into this decision, see Hot August jobs report reignites Fed-hike bets.