Can Nvidia Extend Its AI-Driven Rally After New All-Time High?

Last week, Nvidia stock climbed to a fresh all-time high above $236, pushing its market capitalization toward $5.7 trillion. The stock recently surged 3.7% in a single session and has now posted multiple consecutive gains, reflecting renewed investor confidence ahead of earnings.

The current Nvidia stock forecast hinges on two competing forces: accelerating global AI demand, particularly from China, and rising geopolitical and valuation risks. 

With NVDA trading above key technical levels but approaching short-term overbought conditions, the next move may depend on earnings guidance and regulatory clarity.

China Demand Reignites AI Momentum

One of the primary drivers behind Nvidia’s latest breakout is renewed demand for AI chips from China. 

Major technology firms, including Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, and JD.com are reportedly preparing to purchase Nvidia’s H200 processors, pending regulatory approvals.

Although US export restrictions remain in place and some Chinese approvals have slowed, investors appear to be pricing in a partial shift in demand. 

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s presence in China as part of a US delegation further suggests ongoing negotiations to unlock that pipeline.

Even with China’s revenue under pressure from export controls, Nvidia continues to benefit from surging global AI infrastructure spending. Demand for high-performance GPUs used in model training, inference, and AI server deployment remains structurally strong. 

The broader semiconductor sector has rallied alongside Nvidia, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index reaching record levels.

Year-to-date, NVDA is up more than 25%, and over the past 12 months, the stock has gained more than 70%, significantly outperforming major indices.

Technical Outlook: $210 Support Remains Critical

From a technical perspective, Nvidia remains in a supportive uptrend. The stock is trading above its 20-day moving average near $210, its 50-day moving average near $193, and its 200-day moving average near $186. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $210.63 acts as immediate support.

However, momentum indicators suggest near-term exhaustion. The RSI is hovering near 64–65, and the CCI has entered overbought territory above 130. 

The Stochastic RSI has generated a short-term sell signal, indicating potential consolidation despite the broader uptrend. 

While MACD and ADX continue to support a bullish structure, divergence between oscillators and price suggests momentum may cool before another leg higher.

Over the next several sessions, NVDA is expected to trade between $215 and $235. A confirmed breakout above $235 would likely signal renewed upside momentum, potentially extending toward new highs. 

Conversely, a sustained break below the $210–$215 support band would weaken the short-term structure and open the door for deeper retracement.

Nvidia Price Prediction for 2026

According to the latest CoinCodex Nvidia price prediction, NVDA may experience short-term consolidation before potentially resuming an upward trajectory later in 2026.

For May 2026, projections place the stock between $204 and $224, implying limited near-term upside. 

June and July forecasts suggest moderate pullbacks, with average prices near $195–$201. This indicates a potential cooling phase following recent strength.

However, projections turn more constructive in the second half of the year. September and October show recovery toward the $220 range, while November targets extend toward $260. December forecasts indicate potential highs near $280, representing significant upside if bullish momentum reaccelerates.

While these projections remain model-based and conditional on broader market dynamics, they suggest that consolidation could precede another expansion phase if AI-driven demand continues.

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