Up Over 550% in 2026, Is It Too Late to Buy Moderna Stock?

The past few years have been challenging for Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) whose results haven't been as strong as demand for its COVID vaccine has diminished drastically. Lately, however, there's been a sharp and sudden surge in its share price. The stock has been acting like a volatile biotech stock that just obtained approval for a new drug.

While that isn't the case, there's been a flurry of hype and excitement around a personalized cancer vaccine that it's been working on with Merck. It's a promising growth opportunity for both companies. But with Moderna already soaring more than 550% this year, has it gotten too expensive to buy right now?

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A turning point for Moderna?

Shares of Moderna began to skyrocket in mid-August. For much of the month, the stock was trading at around $60 or lower. But on Aug. 19, it would surge to a high of nearly $177.

The catalyst was a press release announcing positive phase three trials involving intismeran autogene and Merck's blockbuster drug, Keytruda. It was an exciting development, as the combined regimen achieved "statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvements" in both recurrence-free survival and distant metastasis-free survival, for high-risk melanoma patients whose cancer was removed via surgery, when compared to just Keytruda alone.

The development was significant as melanoma is a deadly form of skin cancer, where the risk of it returning is high. The treatment could be a game changer for patients and bring in billions in revenue for Moderna.

How much higher can Moderna's stock go?

Moderna's stock has surged on the news around intismeran, as investors are hopeful this could be the first of more successful mRNA treatments for the business. While the odds appear high that Intismeran will obtain approval from regulators, that alone may not be enough to justify the stock's valuation.

Even though analysts have been upgrading their price targets for the healthcare stock since the promising drug news came out, the consensus analyst price target is around just $77. Last week, the stock closed at nearly $200.

Billions in additional revenue would be terrific news for Moderna, but back in 2022, its top line was nearly $19 billion. The market has reacted as if it's back to the glory days for Moderna, but even if it obtains approval for intismeran, that doesn't guarantee further approvals or a return to profitability for the company.

At its current valuation, there's simply too much optimism priced in to make Moderna a good buy right now. I wouldn't rush to buy it today.

David Jagielski, CPA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Merck and Moderna. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.