Micron Technology's numbers could exceed analysts' expectations when it releases its quarterly report next week.
The company's outlook could be stronger than expected, driven by tighter supply conditions in the memory market.
Micron deserves to trade at a premium valuation, paving the way for a big jump in its stock price after Sept. 30.
Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) has been in crushing form on the stock market in 2026 so far, with shares of the memory specialist already up 256% this year.
This impressive rally will be put to the test when Micron releases its fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results on Sept. 30. The good news for investors is that Micron stock has been regaining momentum lately. It has jumped over 23% since the beginning of August, and there is a good chance that Micron's upcoming results will give the stock a major boost.
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Let's look at the reasons why Micron could make a parabolic move after Sept. 30.
Image source: Micron Technology.
Memory is a key component in artificial intelligence (AI) data centers. It facilitates the rapid movement of large amounts of data between chips and data center clusters, as well as the storage of data needed to train AI models and run inference applications.
The mission-critical nature of memory chips in AI infrastructure explains why demand is exceeding supply, creating a shortage and inflating prices. This has been the primary catalyst behind Micron's incredible growth in recent quarters. Importantly, AI infrastructure spending isn't showing any signs of slowing down.
Consulting giant PwC estimates that annual data center capital expenditure will hit $800 billion in 2026. The firm notes that this annual capex could rise to a whopping $1.8 trillion in 2050. PwC projects that cumulative AI infrastructure spending through 2050 would land at $31.6 trillion. The firm also points out that the majority of this spending will be allocated to recurring chip upgrades.
So, the ongoing infrastructure boom that's fueling Micron's growth won't be tapering off. In fact, PwC projects that spending on hardware could increase from 70% currently to 93% in 2050. This should pave the way for sustained growth in Micron's business over the long run, especially as memory manufacturers focus on technological enhancements.
At the same time, the memory market is poised to remain undersupplied. Goldman Sachs estimates that the demand for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) will exceed supply by 5% in 2026, and that gap could widen to 5.9% in 2027. Moreover, the new factories being built by memory manufacturers won't start volume production until 2029.
All this paves the way for a stronger-than-expected jump in Micron's revenue and earnings on Sept. 30, along with solid guidance.
Micron could post $31.35 in earnings per share on revenue of $51 billion, according to consensus estimates. Those numbers are slightly higher than the midpoint of the company's guidance of $50 billion in revenue and $31.00 in earnings per share.
We have already seen that the memory shortage is likely to get worse, making the pricing environment even more favorable for Micron. Meanwhile, potentially higher spending on AI infrastructure should ensure strong shipment volumes. These factors should be enough for Micron to clear analysts' expectations.
At the same time, the company's guidance can also exceed expectations due to further tightening of the supply chain. Analysts are projecting a 317% increase in Micron's revenue in the current quarter to $56.9 billion, along with a 7.3x year-over-year increase in earnings per share to $34.95. While those numbers are already quite impressive, we have seen why Micron is positioned to exceed estimates.
Moreover, this AI stock is trading at just 23 times earnings despite its sensational growth. The forward earnings multiple of 6.5 is even more attractive. The market may be compelled to reward Micron with a premium valuation after Sept. 30 on the back of better-than-expected numbers and guidance. So, savvy investors have a great opportunity right now to buy Micron stock ahead of its earnings report, as it is likely to skyrocket higher.
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Harsh Chauhan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Goldman Sachs Group and Micron Technology. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.