Nvidia Earnings on August 26: What History Tells Us About Nvidia Stock's Post-Earnings-Release Moves
Key Points
Nvidia has a great long-term record of beating Wall Street’s earnings estimates.
However, an “earnings beat" doesn’t guarantee the stock will gain following the release.
Nvidia's guidance (relative to Wall Street's expectations) often affects its stock price more than its current results in an earnings release.
- 10 stocks we like better than Nvidia ›
Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) is scheduled to report its results for the second quarter of fiscal 2027 (ended July 26, 2026) on Wednesday, Aug. 26, after the market close.
The artificial intelligence (AI) giant's earnings release is arguably the most anticipated of the quarterly earnings season. That's because Nvidia dominates the AI chip and infrastructure market, making it a bellwether for the fast-growing AI space.
Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »
Nvidia has a super track record of beating Wall Street's estimates for revenue, earnings, and guidance -- but that doesn't necessarily mean its stock price will rise following the release.
Image source: Getty Images.
Nvidia's fiscal Q2 guidance and Wall Street's estimates
| Metric | Q2 Fiscal 2026 Result | Nvidia's Q2 Fiscal 2027 Guidance | Nvidia's Projected Growth | Wall Street's Q2 Fiscal 2027 Consensus Estimate | Wall Street's Projected Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $46.74 billion | $91 billion | 95% | $92.18 billion | 97% |
| Adjusted (non-GAAP) earnings per share (EPS) | $1.05 | $*2.04 | 94% | $2.09 | 99% |
Data sources: Nvidia and Yahoo! Finance. Fiscal Q2 2027 ended July 26, 2026. GAAP = generally accepted accounting principles. *Calculation by the author based on the metrics for which management provided guidance.
As with the last few quarters, Nvidia's guidance assumes no data center AI chip sales to China.
Wall Street's estimates for fiscal Q3 guidance
Oftentimes, a company's guidance (relative to Wall Street's expectations) affects its stock price more than its current results following an earnings release. That's because the stock market is a forward-looking machine -- investors care more about a company's future than its past performance.
| Metric | Q3 Fiscal 2026 Result | Wall Street's Q3 Fiscal 2027 Consensus Estimate | Wall Street's Projected Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $57.01 billion | $103.9 billion | 82% |
| Adjusted EPS | $1.30 | $2.37 | 82% |
Data sources: Nvidia and Yahoo! Finance. Fiscal Q3 2027 ends in late Oct. 2026.
Nvidia's great long-term "earnings beat" track record
Nvidia has a robust track record of exceeding Wall Street's earnings estimates. Below is the data for the past 24 quarters, with the results of the last four quarters broken out.
| Period | Earnings* Results Relative to Wall Street's Consensus Estimate | Magnitude of Earnings Beat (Average) | Magnitude of Earnings Beat (Range) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 24 reported quarters | 22/24 beats = 91.7% |
9%** |
3% to 32%** |
|
Most recently reported four quarters |
4/4 beats = 100% | 4.6% | 3.5% to 5.5% |
Data sources: Nvidia and Yahoo! Finance. Calculations by the author. *Earnings in the form of adjusted earnings per share (EPS). **Rounded to the nearest whole number.
Nvidia stock's performance following earnings releases
The data below shows the size of Nvidia's earnings beat and its stock price performance on the day following the release for the prior 13 quarters, or just over three years.
I chose 13 quarters for a reason: This is the period since demand for Nvidia's data center products skyrocketed due to the powerful demand for generative AI capabilities driven by OpenAI's release of its ChatGPT chatbot in late 2022.
| Quarter | Period Ending | Magnitude of Earnings Beat/(Miss)* | Stock Price Change Day After Earnings Release |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 fiscal 2027 | Late April 2026 | 6% | (1.8%) |
| Q4 fiscal 2026 | Late January 2026 | 5% | (5.5%) |
| Q3 fiscal 2026 | Late October 2025 | 3% | (3.2%) |
| Q2 fiscal 2026 | Late July 2025 | 4% | (0.8%) |
| Q1 fiscal 2026 | Late April 2025 | 8% | 3.3% |
| Q4 fiscal 2025 | Late January 2025 | 5% | (8.5%) |
| Q3 fiscal 2025 | Late October 2024 | 9% | 0.5% |
| Q2 fiscal 2024 | Late July 2024 | 6% | (6.4%) |
| Q1 fiscal 2025 | Late April 2024 | 10% | 9.3% |
| Q4 fiscal 2024 | Late January 2024 | 12% | 16.4% |
| Q3 fiscal 2024 | Late October 2023 | 19% |
(2.5%) |
| Q2 fiscal 2024 | Late July 2023 | 32% |
0.1% |
| Q1 fiscal 2024 | Late April 2023 | 18% |
24.4% |
Data sources: Nvidia, Yahoo! Finance, and YCharts. *Rounded to the nearest whole number.
Focus on Nvidia's results and guidance, not on the stock price move
I'll end on the same note as I did the last two quarters when I did this exercise:
As you can see, there is no significant correlation between the magnitude of the earnings beat and stock price performance after the earnings release. But that shouldn't concern long-term investors. As long as Nvidia continues to deliver strong results, its stock price should continue to increase over the long term.
Should you buy stock in Nvidia right now?
Before you buy stock in Nvidia, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Nvidia wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $431,488!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,279,584!*
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 958% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 212% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.
See the 10 stocks »
*Stock Advisor returns as of August 25, 2026.
Beth McKenna has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Recommended Articles
