I'm Calling It: UPS Is a Buy Before July 15

United Parcel Service's (NYSE: UPS) stock has fallen 50% since hitting a high in early 2022. The stock, however, is up 30% from its lows in Oct. 2025. The market is starting to believe the company's turnaround plan is gaining traction. If you wait too long to buy it, you may miss out on the investment opportunity.

UPS isn't expecting much from the second quarter

Buying UPS before July 15 should get you in before the company reports second-quarter earnings. Those earnings aren't expected to be great reading. But that's not the point. The key here is that UPS has been telling investors that the first half of 2026 would be weak, with the second half coming in stronger.

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In other words, the end of the second quarter will be the inflection point. It will be the point in time when the industrial giant's financial results start to turn around. There are already important signs of progress, with a steady increase in revenue per piece in the U.S. business being a key sign of the company's early turnaround success.

Not a great year, but an important change of direction

To be fair, the full year is likely to be roughly flat with 2025, with revenue and operating margin barely budging (though revenue per piece is expected to keep rising, ending up mid-single digits for the year). However, the company believes the trends will shift between the first and second half.

In the first half of 2026, revenues are expected to fall, with margins remaining under pressure. But in the second half, revenues are expected to start growing, with margins improving. The company didn't materially alter its view when it reported first-quarter 2026 earnings in late April. In fact, the CEO doubled down, telling investors that the turnaround effort was still on track. I believe there will be a similarly positive update when the company reports second-quarter earnings.

More aggressive investors should consider buying now

Risk-averse investors probably won't want to buy UPS, given the turnaround story it is working on. However, for more aggressive investors, that turnaround appears to be coming to an end. The business upturn will come, if management is correct, in the second half of the year. The stock is already moving higher, but if you act before the company reports second-quarter earnings, you can still get in before the rest of Wall Street catches on to the change in direction.

Reuben Gregg Brewer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends United Parcel Service. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.