Prediction: Eli Lilly Will Be Worth More Than SpaceX in 2 Years

Is there any hotter name on Wall Street right now than SpaceX? The Elon Musk-led space and rocket launch services juggernaut is preparing to go public, and it could be the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history. SpaceX could reportedly go public at a valuation of $1.8 trillion, instantly making it one of the world's largest companies.

It would put it ahead of Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY), the pharmaceutical giant that has become the leader in obesity drugs. That's not to knock Eli Lilly, which happens to be a behemoth in its own right, carrying a market cap just over $1 trillion today.

What does SpaceX have to do with Eli Lilly? There's a hot take cooking.

Resist the hype and avoid the SpaceX IPO. Instead, consider putting your hard-earned capital in Eli Lilly. I don't believe it will take that long to prove that decision right. Here's why I predict Eli Lilly will be worth more than SpaceX in just two years.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

SpaceX is up against IPO history

Frankly, history is against SpaceX's stock performing well, at least in the short term. Dimensional Fund Advisors researched IPO stock performance using a hypothetical portfolio tracked over 18-year periods from 1992 to 2018. The study found that IPO stocks tend to underperform the broader market.

Companies often IPO during strong stock markets with hype and fanfare from investors. After all, the point of an IPO is to raise as much money as possible for the company. SpaceX, given its expected $1.8 trillion valuation, has drummed up plenty of excitement.

Plus, the broader market isn't just doing well, it's near all-time highs. The S&P 500 index's Shiller P/E ratio currently sits near its highest level on record. Only the infamous 1999 dot-com market bubble tops it. SpaceX could be the largest IPO in history, at a time when the broader market's valuation is near its all-time high. Those aren't good conditions for strong investment returns.

Data by YCharts.

Eli Lilly's obesity drug momentum should continue to build

Eli Lilly is firing on all cylinders in the obesity drug market. Its success with Mounjaro and Zepbound has driven staggering growth over the past few years, and that should only continue. For starters, Eli Lilly just launched Foundayo, following its FDA approval on April 1, 2026. Foundayo is just the second GLP-1 pill on the market, and the only one that patients can take without food or water restrictions.

Additionally, Eli Lilly's experimental triple-hormone agonist Retatrutide is a next-generation obesity drug that some experts believe could be a grand slam, based on the outstanding test data it has produced in clinical trials. It seems likely that Eli Lilly can maintain its momentum in an obesity drug industry that Morgan Stanley estimates could grow from $79 billion in 2025 to $195 billion by 2035.

Obesity drugs will likely remain a core growth engine for Eli Lilly for the foreseeable future. Analysts currently see the company growing its earnings by a blistering 25% annually for the next three to five years.

Eli Lilly over SpaceX? Here's the math behind the prediction.

SpaceX's IPO concerns aren't just circumstantial; the company will go public at a breathtakingly expensive valuation. It had a net loss of $4.9 billion last year, so you can't value its stock on earnings. At a $1.8 trillion valuation, SpaceX would trade at 96 times revenue, which was $18.7 billion in 2025. Stocks rarely reach, let alone sustain, valuations that high.

Suppose SpaceX's valuation drops to 30 times sales over the next two years. That's very possible. Snowflake was a red-hot IPO stock back in 2020. After an initial surge, it punished investors for several years as its valuation fell back to earth.

Back to SpaceX. The company grew revenue by 33% in 2025. If that growth repeats this year and next, its roughly $33 billion in 2027 revenue, at 30 times those sales, would value SpaceX at $990 billion. In other words, SpaceX stock could drop nearly 50% despite very strong growth.

That alone would drop the stock below Eli Lilly's current valuation. Meanwhile, Eli Lilly has room to rise. Despite its trillion-dollar market cap, the stock trades at 39 times earnings. That's a compelling price tag for the growth analysts anticipate. At a price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of just 1.2, investors can reasonably expect double-digit investment returns as Eli Lilly's earnings pile up.

Investors could be looking at two stocks that can easily head in different directions over the next two years. Unfortunately for SpaceX, it's probably not the one going up.

Justin Pope has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Eli Lilly and Snowflake. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.