Eli Lilly Just Got a Huge Vote of Confidence From Morgan Stanley -- and It's All About Mounjaro

The introduction of GLP-1 drugs has revolutionized the way the world looks at weight loss. Taking a shot or a pill to curb one's appetite and lose weight is close to a miracle for those who have long struggled with their weight. And, beyond aesthetics, there are significant health benefits associated with weight loss.

No wonder the competition is so fierce in the GLP-1 race. Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) got a head start with Wegovy. But Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) quickly took over the lead position with its Mounjaro and Zepbound GLP-1 drugs. There's been a lot of news in the niche in 2026, but this lesser-known fact about Eli Lilly's Mounjaro could be more important than you think.

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GLP-1 pills and new drugs

The biggest GLP-1 story heading into 2026 was Novo Nordisk's introduction of a GLP-1 pill. Up until that pill was introduced, the only option for consumers was to take a shot. People generally don't like shots, so there was a real opportunity for Novo Nordisk to gain back share from its main pharmaceutical competitor in the space, Eli Lilly. However, that opportunity was relatively short-lived, as Eli Lilly has now begun selling its own GLP-1 pill.

There are some nuances to consider here. Novo Nordisk's pill is basically the same drug as its shot. Eli Lilly's pill is a different drug from its shots, and it appears to be less effective than its shots. So Novo Nordisk still has a potential wedge to use against Eli Lilly in the GLP-1 race.

But Eli Lilly has a new GLP-1 drug in development that appears like it could be more effective than the current drugs on the market. That includes Eli Lilly's own Mounjaro and Zepbound. That said, this drug isn't yet on the market, so the competition between Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly on the pill side will remain the main attraction for a little longer.

The GLP-1 story in India is very interesting

While pills are the headline grabber, investors shouldn't forget about GLP-1 shots just yet. For example, Mounjaro and Zepbound continue to produce very strong growth for Eli Lilly, with sales up 125% and 80%, respectively, in the first quarter of 2026. But there's an even more interesting stat from India.

Novo Nordisk's Wegovy just lost patent protection in India, and low-cost generics have flooded onto the scene. That's normal, but Eli Lilly still grew its Mounjaro sales by 10% in the Indian market despite cheaper GLP-1 alternatives being available. Morgan Stanley, for one, thinks this is a big story that investors are missing.

Amid all of the noise in the GLP-1 race, Eli Lilly has built a large and resilient business outside the United States. But investors are mostly focused on its U.S. business. Meanwhile, the company has quietly strung together a year of outperformance on the international GLP-1 front.

Morgan Stanley estimates that Eli Lilly controls slightly over 50% of the international market at this point. That's likely driven by Mounjaro's stronger weight-loss results compared to Wegovy. Since Novo Nordisk's Wegovy pill doesn't close that gap, Eli Lilly could continue to see strong international growth as consumers seek the most effective weight-loss options. That's the big takeaway from what is happening in India as generic versions of Wegovy roll out. If Morgan Stanley is right in its optimism, Wall Street could be underestimating Eli Lilly's growth potential.

The fly in the ointment

There's just one problem with Eli Lilly that investors have to consider: valuation. The stock's price-to-earnings ratio is roughly 38x, so it won't likely interest value investors. However, that is down from the five-year average of 56x. More aggressive growth investors may want to dig into the GLP-1 events unfolding in India and also reconsider Eli Lilly's long-term international opportunity. Indeed, Morgan Stanley thinks the market is missing something big, which could mean even stronger results than are currently reflected in the stock's valuation.

Reuben Gregg Brewer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Eli Lilly. The Motley Fool recommends Novo Nordisk. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.