This Is the SpaceX Number No One Is Talking About -- and History Says It May Total $175 Billion
Key Points
SpaceX is preparing to go public and will likely be the largest initial public offering (IPO) in stock market history.
SpaceX's reported profitability in 2025 and its leadership -- its CEO, Elon Musk, also runs a trillion-dollar auto company, Tesla -- have investors excited.
However, mega-IPOs have a terrible initial track record, dating back to the late 1990s.
- These 10 stocks could mint the next wave of millionaires ›
This is shaping up to be perhaps the greatest year for initial public offerings (IPOs) in history. Artificial intelligence (AI) large language model developers OpenAI and Anthropic are both contemplating going public later this year.
However, space infrastructure and AI titan SpaceX, led by Elon Musk, who also runs trillion-dollar electric-vehicle maker Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), aims to beat them to the punch.
Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue »
Image source: Getty Images.
SpaceX might be the most consequential IPO of 2026
On April 1, reports surfaced that SpaceX had filed confidentially for an IPO. The company behind space broadband service Starlink, large language model Grok, xAI, social media platform X, and dozens of reusable spacecraft, is seeking a valuation of $1.75 trillion and a $75 billion capital raise. If these estimates prove accurate, SpaceX would become the largest-ever IPO by a long shot and slide in ahead of Tesla as the eighth-largest publicly traded company in the U.S.
There's a lot for investors to be excited about. For instance, Reuters reported earlier this year that SpaceX brought in up to $16 billion in revenue last year and generated an $8 billion profit. Though it took Tesla many years to turn the corner to recurring profitability, SpaceX appears to have crossed this proverbial line in the sand.
Prospective SpaceX IPO investors are also excited about the opportunity to ride Elon Musk's coattails to another huge gain. Since taking Tesla public in June 2010, Musk has overseen a nearly 23,000% return in his company's shares, through the closing bell on April 14.
Lastly, the addressable markets for space infrastructure and artificial intelligence are among the largest on Wall Street. McKinsey & Company believes the global space economy is a $1.8 trillion opportunity by 2035, while PwC analysts expect AI to create more than $15 trillion in global economic value by 2030.
But what if I told you that Wall Street is missing the biggest SpaceX number of them all?
Image source: Getty Images.
Wall Street is overlooking an important historical figure
Although history can't predict the future with 100% accuracy, it tends to be correct more often than not.
Since 1999, the U.S. has been privy to a handful of mega-IPOs, including Alibaba Group, Visa, Meta Platforms (formerly Facebook), General Motors, and United Parcel Service. We also witnessed the largest global IPO in history, Saudi Aramco, in December 2019.
But with the exception of Visa, these high-profile companies fell flat on their faces when they ran out of the gate. What follows are their respective returns six months after their IPOs:
- Alibaba Group: Down 9%
- Visa: Up 23%
- Facebook (now Meta): Down 38%
- General Motors: Down 8%
- UPS: Down 11%
- Saudi Aramco: Down 15%
On average, the largest IPOs have lost 10% of their value (when rounded) six months after going public. If history rhymes and SpaceX loses 10% of its value half a year after its debut, it could erase up to $175 billion in market value.
History makes clear that investors consistently overestimate the upside of newly public companies. This is something prospective SpaceX investors need to keep in mind.
Don’t miss this second chance at a potentially lucrative opportunity
Ever feel like you missed the boat in buying the most successful stocks? Then you’ll want to hear this.
On rare occasions, our expert team of analysts issues a “Double Down” stock recommendation for companies that they think are about to pop. If you’re worried you’ve already missed your chance to invest, now is the best time to buy before it’s too late. And the numbers speak for themselves:
- Nvidia: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2009, you’d have $515,842!*
- Apple: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2008, you’d have $50,733!*
- Netflix: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2004, you’d have $580,872!*
Right now, we’re issuing “Double Down” alerts for three incredible companies, available when you join Stock Advisor, and there may not be another chance like this anytime soon.
See the 3 stocks »
*Stock Advisor returns as of April 17, 2026.
Sean Williams has positions in Meta Platforms and Visa. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Meta Platforms, Tesla, United Parcel Service, and Visa. The Motley Fool recommends Alibaba Group and General Motors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Recommended Articles
