Can Netflix Stock Double in 5 Years? Yes -- But Only If These 3 Things Happen

Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) doesn't look like a typical double candidate anymore. It's already huge, it leads global streaming, and growth isn't as fast as it used to be. On the surface, that usually means limited upside.

But those who are thinking along these lines might have missed the bigger picture. Netflix is no longer trying to win by adding more users. It's trying to make more money from the users it already has. And if that shift works, the stock could still double over the next five years.

But first, these three things need to happen.

Image source: Getty Images.

Growth can stay steady, but profits must rise

Netflix doesn't need to return to its early days of rapid subscriber growth. At its current scale, even low-double-digit revenue growth is enough to support strong long-term returns. And that's what it has been doing lately.

In 2025, the company delivered 16% revenue growth, showing that, despite its size, the business hasn't stalled. In fact, revenue grew 18% in the last quarter of 2025, even stronger than the full-year growth rate. Going forward, Netflix can continue to grow through price increases, improved engagement, and expansion into new markets.

But the real story is profits. Netflix has already significantly improved its profit margins, with operating margin now around 25% to 30%. There's still room to do more as the company becomes smarter about content spending and spreads costs across a global audience. The idea is simple: If profits keep growing faster than revenue, that alone can push the stock higher over time.

Advertising is the swing factor

If there is one variable that determines whether Netflix's stock doubles, it's probably advertising.

The company has already built one of the largest premium ad-supported audiences in streaming, reaching 190 million subscribers in November 2025. Ad revenue also grew rapidly in 2025, up by more than 2.5 times to $1.5 billion. While impressive, the scale pales in comparison to Netflix's $45 billion total revenue.

If advertising continues to expand in the coming years, it will change the economics of the whole business. It will allow Netflix to increase revenue per user without materially increasing content costs. And once the infrastructure is in place, advertising may carry higher margins than the company's subscription business.

If Netflix executes well -- improving targeting, measurement, and programmatic capabilities and forming strategic partnerships -- advertising could become a meaningful profit engine over time. In short, this isn't just another growth driver. It's the key lever that could reshape Netflix's earnings trajectory in the coming years.

The valuation has to hold, and that's not guaranteed

Even with strong execution, Netflix stock must overcome its last hurdle: sustaining its premium valuation. As of writing, the stock trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 38 times, likely reflecting confidence in its ability to grow revenue, expand margins, and build a second monetization layer through ads. For the stock price to double, that confidence needs to remain intact.

That means Netflix must deliver consistently, not just in headline growth but also in the quality of that growth -- meaning sustainable growth in net profit. Any signs of slowing momentum, weaker ad monetization, or rising competitive pressure could lead to a compression of its P/E ratio.

In other words, Netflix doesn't just need to perform. It must also keep investors convinced that its best days are still ahead.

What does it mean for investors?

Netflix can double over the next five years, but not because it suddenly becomes a faster-growing company. It will happen, if at all, because the company delivers on three things: steady growth with expanding margins, successful execution in advertising, and a valuation that holds as the story evolves.

I think it has a decent chance of delivering the first two, judging from its past track record, but the last factor is more difficult to predict, as investor sentiment can fluctuate over time. Either way, Netflix will be a stock to watch in the next five years.

Lawrence Nga has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Netflix. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.