The S&P 500 Has Completed This Rare Feat 4 Times in 76 Years, and History Couldn't Be Clearer About What Comes Next for Stocks
Key Points
Wall Street's major stock indexes have been making history with regularity since 2019, with the S&P 500 delivering two separate three-year stretches with annual gains of at least 16% (2019-2021 and 2023-2025).
Although springboard bounce-backs in the S&P 500 are uncommon, history suggests this optimistic momentum carries into the following year.
However, prior slingshot intra-year bounces have followed the end of liquidity/shock events -- and there's no clear indication that Wall Street has moved beyond its current headwinds.
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Investors might not realize it, but they've been witnessing history since 2019. Over the S&P 500's (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) 98 years, it's delivered annual gains of at least 16% for three consecutive years on three occasions. Two of those three occurrences are recent (2019-2021 and 2023-2025).
Following in the S&P 500's footsteps, we've watched the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI) and Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) each reach psychologically important plateaus: 50,000 for the Dow and 24,000 for the Nasdaq.
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Although history can't concretely predict the future, it does have a way of rhyming on Wall Street more often than not. That's what makes the latest rare feat for the benchmark S&P 500 all the more intriguing for investors.
Image source: Getty Images.
The stock market's benchmark index has done this only four times since 1950
Volatility is the price of admission to the greatest wealth creator on the planet. Since World War II, there have been north of 100 pullbacks of at least 5% in the S&P 500. Roughly a quarter of these have turned into full-blown stock market corrections (10% or greater declines), and an eighth became bear markets (a decline of 20% or greater).
Although stock market corrections and bear markets tend to be short-lived, it's uncommon for equities to rebound like a springboard from them. But every so often, this unique scenario takes shape on Wall Street, based on what history tells us.
According to a social media post on X (formerly Twitter) by Carson Group's Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick, the S&P 500 has had four years since 1950 when it's been down at least 15% intra-year and closed that same year higher by a double-digit percentage.
Small sample size, yes.
-- Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) March 25, 2026
Still, last year saw the S&P 500 down more than 15% YTD at some point and finished the year up more than double digits. We called this a slingshot year.
The other three times that happened (1982, 2009, and 2020) saw the following year up at least double... pic.twitter.com/k5qq0Ewcx4
Declines ranging from 15.3% to 30.8% were wiped away in 1982, 2009, 2020, and 2025, and replaced by year-end gains of 14.8% to 23.5%.
What's noteworthy is how the S&P 500 responded in the year following these immaculate intra-year turnarounds. In 1983, 2010, and 2021, the benchmark index soared 17.3%, 12.8%, and 27.9%, respectively, for an average following-year return of 19%!
To be objective, this is a relatively small data sample, and the previous turnarounds, in hindsight, all occurred after the worst of a major liquidity/shock event had passed. For instance, the 2009 bounce followed the end of the financial crisis, while the 2020 rebound marked the end of the five-week COVID-19 crash.
Although the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite bounced back strongly from the mini-crash associated with the unveiling of President Donald Trump's tariff and trade policy in early April 2025, it's not clear if the proverbial storm has passed. For instance, the Iran war is stoking inflation fears and may end up being the catalyst that shifts the Federal Reserve's monetary policy from rate easing to rate hiking. This would be terrible news for a historically pricey stock market.
But based solely on what 76 years of history have shown, springboard bounce-backs in the S&P 500 tend to continue through the following year. If this proves the case for a fourth consecutive time, patient investors should be all smiles nine months from now.
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Sean Williams has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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