After dropping by more than 45% from October to March, Bitcoin has recovered a bit.
The timing of Bitcoin's bounce coincides with intensifying hostilities in the Middle East and the rising cost of oil.
In previous geopolitical crises, Bitcoin has outperformed gold, giving it more credence as a potential safe asset.
For years, investors have talked up Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) as a potential safe asset, especially during periods of geopolitical tension. In fact, billionaire hedge fund managers have likened Bitcoin to gold in terms of its ability to maintain its value during major global crises.
Certainly, what's happening now in the Middle East can be described as a "major global crisis." The price of oil, hovering around $100 a barrel, could skyrocket to $150 if vital oil pathways in the Middle East remain closed.
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If that happens, you will want to hold some Bitcoin. Here's why.
Bitcoin had been losing its luster as a potential safe asset. In the period from October 2025 to March 2026, it lost about 45% of its value and seemed to be mired in the bust phase of its traditional boom-or-bust cycle.
From an all-time high of $126,000, Bitcoin had plummeted to less than $65,000. That hardly sounds like a safe asset.
Image source: Getty Images.
But then missiles started flying, the price of oil started soaring, and the price of Bitcoin started to recover. Since March 1, Bitcoin has gained 5% to about $69,000. At one point, Bitcoin was up as much as 10%, and some investors thought Bitcoin might make it all the way back to the $100,000 price level.
Bitcoin may not be skyrocketing in value in March, but it is certainly holding its value. That's exactly what you want a store-of-value asset to do. Once geopolitical tensions ease, that's when Bitcoin can go on another of its record-setting runs.
There's growing evidence of Bitcoin as a potential safe-haven asset that dates back more than five years. In 2025, BlackRock released a report called "Bitcoin: A Unique Diversifier" in which it detailed Bitcoin's performance during six major geopolitical crises from 2020 to 2025. The first event was the uptick in U.S.-Iran hostilities in January 2020, and the final event was the White House's announcement of global tariffs in April 2025.
Interestingly, Bitcoin actually outperformed gold more often than you might think during these crises. During the initial 10 days of a crisis, Bitcoin outperformed gold in four of the six cases. And, after 60 days of the crisis, Bitcoin outperformed gold in all six cases.
If history is any guide, Bitcoin will outperform gold during the current geopolitical crisis in the Middle East. For example, after the U.S.-Iran escalation in January 2020, Bitcoin soared by 26% in the 60 days after the crisis, while gold advanced by only 7%.
Of course, there's no denying gold as a safe asset. It remains the go-to asset for nervous investors. If you are fearful about what the next stage of escalation might look like in the Strait of Hormuz, gold certainly deserves a place in your portfolio.
But there's certainly also a case to be made for Bitcoin. It's purely digital, highly portable, and tradable 24/7. That's what helps to differentiate it from physical gold.
It's easy to see why some hedge fund managers have embraced it as a potential hedge and why Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has referred to it as a type of modern, digital gold. If the price of oil is headed to $150, as Goldman Sachs now suggests, you will want to have some in your portfolio.
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Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin and Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool recommends BlackRock. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.