Remitly is facing a narrative disruption, but is actually the disruptor.
It should keep growing its share of the remittance market and is expanding into new product categories.
The stock is incredibly cheap right now if you have a long-term time horizon.
Wall Street has separated virtually every business into a winner or loser when it comes to artificial intelligence (AI) disruption. Remitly Global (NASDAQ: RELY) has been deemed a loser in AI and in the emergent era of stablecoin disruption. Shares of the stock have fallen 69% from all-time highs despite the company growing its revenue by more than 500% cumulatively in the last five years.
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Remitly operates a remittance platform for individuals and small businesses. With direct banking connections and a smooth mobile app, the company can offer lower fees than traditional wire transfers, all from a smartphone. This has enabled the business to grow from nothing a decade ago to 9.3 million active customers last quarter.
Investors are concerned about Remitly amid a rise in stablecoin transactions. Along with AI-driven coding tools, there is a narrative that Remitly's network could be disrupted, driving the cost of international money transfers to zero and ruining Remitly's business model.
This is misguided for a few reasons. First, a small team of coders cannot get the required licenses from every country needed to run a remittance business. Second, converting stablecoins to fiat currencies still incurs overhead costs that AI cannot eliminate. Third, Remitly is already using stablecoins on its own balance sheet to minimize its transfer costs, thereby allowing it to lower customer fees. Fourth, Remitly is expanding beyond remittances by allowing customers to spend and store money on the platform, opening new monetization avenues. And fifth, Remitly is using AI to improve the customer journey and make automated customer support services more cost-effective.
A narrative of stablecoin and AI disruption is just that, a narrative, and one that Remitly should actually benefit from. Last quarter, Remitly's revenue grew 26% year over year, with healthy margin expansion. More of the same is expected from management in 2026.
At today's stock price, just below $16, Remitly has a market cap of $3.27 billion. Long-term, management expects to generate upward of $3 billion in revenue and $575 million to $600 million in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA). Even disregarding these adjusted earnings figures, which are not the true profit measure of any business, Remitly's stock looks cheap for those with a multiyear time horizon.
Bottom-line net income of $400 million in 2026 would give the stock a forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 8, which is incredibly cheap for a business with a long runway to grow like Remitly. This makes the stock one that will likely make you a millionaire in the years ahead if you buy today and hold forever.
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Brett Schafer has positions in Remitly Global. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.