Swiss Franc: One-off export surge tempers SNB response – Commerzbank

Michael Pfister at Commerzbank notes that Switzerland’s strong 1.9% quarter-on-quarter growth was driven mainly by net exports, particularly to the Euro area excluding Germany, rather than a broad-based domestic upswing. Given the volatility of net exports, Commerzbank only lifts its 2026 growth forecast to 2% and expects the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to focus on inflation rather than react with immediate rate hikes.

Growth strength seen as temporary

"Switzerland’s second-quarter growth figures have caused quite a stir in recent weeks."

"Net exports are usually quite volatile and a partial reversal is often observed in the following quarter after such a strong figure, as intermediate goods have to be imported again."

"In our view, the SNB thus does not need to react directly to the renewed strength in growth figures by hiking rates; it can focus on anchoring inflationary pressures within the middle of the target range for the time being."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)