Germany: Weak labor market signals persist – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank’s Marc Schattenberg notes that the German labor market shows little evidence of a spring recovery, with unemployment still slightly above 3 million and seasonally adjusted figures flat. He highlights that the German economy started the year weakly, structural changes in key industries continue, and recent data show job losses in manufacturing outweighing gains in services.

Labor market lacks spring recovery signs

"There's not much sign yet of a spring upturn in the labor market. While the number of unemployed did decrease in March, following the seasonal pattern, it remains slightly above the 3 million mark. Adjusted for seasonal influences, the number of unemployed and the corresponding rate remained unchanged."

"It is likely also a factor that, according to the latest hard data, the German economy had already started the year rather weakly before the escalation in the Middle East."

"Furthermore, the structural transformation in key industries is continuing, and in some areas this could now be further accelerated by the energy price shock."

"According to the latest data from January, 178,000 jobs were lost in the manufacturing sector compared to the previous year."

"This could not be offset by the relatively strong job growth in the service sector. As a result, according to the latest seasonally adjusted data, employment subject to social security contributions fell by 30,000 people in January. The usual leading labor market indicators do not currently suggest any trend reversal."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)