Is Bitcoin Headed to $81,000? What On-Chain Data Shows

Bitcoin (BTC) slipped back below $85,000 this week, days after its first daily close above that level. Glassnode data shows the move came on weak trading volume, with new capital arriving slowly.

The firm now flags $81,000, home to the largest buy orders on Binance, as the next level to watch.

Why Does Bitcoin Price Keep Fading After US Data?

Federal Reserve minutes released on Wednesday showed most officials saw another hike this year as likely appropriate.

Bitcoin slid into the release, then rose 0.18% in the first five minutes, BeInCrypto reported. BTC traded at $83,079 at press time, down 1.8% over 24 hours.

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After 3 earlier US data releases, Bitcoin rose early and faded within 12 hours, Glassnode found. The S&P 500 held above its pre-release level each time.

“After PCE inflation, Bitcoin gave back an early 2% jump. After payrolls on October 2, it was 2.3% lower twelve hours later,” the report read.

Who Was Buying Above $85,000?

It is worth noting that trading activity stayed light through the breakout. Glassnode put combined spot and ETF volume at about $6.8 billion a day on a 7-day average. That was lower than on 9 in 10 days since January 2024.

US buyers were quiet on spot markets as well. The Coinbase Premium Index, a gauge of US demand, sits at -0.056. 

A negative reading means Bitcoin trades cheaper on Coinbase than on Binance. The index has stayed below zero since early September.

Fresh capital also came in slowly. ETF flows, stablecoin growth and corporate treasury buying added about $4.9 billion in the 30 days to October 5. Realized Cap, which values each coin at the price it last moved, rose about $12.8 billion in that time.

“New money therefore covers less than two-fifths of that rise. The rest is coins changing hands at higher prices among money already in the market. The rallies of 2024 and 2025 showed a similar mix, but on far larger inflows. Until those inflows pick up, the move depends on existing holders paying more,” Glassnode added.

Some of those holders cashed out when Bitcoin first closed above $85,000 on October 4. That day, recent buyers holding under 155 days accounted for about 86% of exchange inflows. No day in the past year saw a higher share.

Futures traders have held back too, analyst MAC_D noted. Open interest fell nearly 10% since September 22, from about $28.8 billion to $26 billion.

Can the Bids at $81,000 Hold?

Santiment’s exchange data points the other way. It recorded 24,073 BTC in net exchange outflows on October 5, the largest since March 1. 

Exchange supply has dropped to about 6.50% of total supply. Santiment reads that as bullish, since fewer coins sit ready for immediate sale.

On the Binance order book, Glassnode’s data through October 7 shows large orders on both sides of the price.

Below the price, the largest bids sit at $81,000 to $81,250 and have stood since October 3. Just above them, a liquidation cluster runs from about $81,700 to $83,300. Forced selling of leveraged longs there could add to any slide, Glassnode said. The next cluster down sits near $75,000.

On the upside, Glassnode said a settled close above $85,500 would restore the level Bitcoin gave up this week. Beyond that sits a block of sell orders at $86,500 to $86,750. 

Above it, a short liquidation cluster runs from about $87,100 to $95,900, heaviest near $92,000. A push through those orders could force short sellers to close, adding to a move higher.

The October 14 consumer price index (CPI) release is the next macro test. It lands about two weeks before the Fed meets on October 27 and 28.

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