Why Did SpaceX Stock Drop After Starship’s Successful Launch?

Elon Musk’s big dream of launching a reusable space travel vehicle just cleared its biggest test. Will this now drive SpaceX stock to the moon — or Mars?

Starship reached orbit and returned intact on Monday, splashing down in the Pacific after its most important flight yet. 

For investors, the mission went directly to the heart of SpaceX’s bull case: if Starship can eventually fly repeatedly, SpaceX could launch satellites and cargo at far lower costs.

That promise has helped support some extraordinary valuations. Cathie Wood, for example, has argued that even a $1.75 trillion SpaceX valuation could look cheap if Starship works at scale.

So why did the stock fall?

Why SpaceX Stock Dropped After Starship’s Success

SpaceX shares were trading around $147.29 at noon ET, down 0.93%, minutes before the company confirmed Starship’s splashdown.

The mission itself largely delivered. Starship reached roughly 170 miles above Earth, deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites and later survived reentry before flipping upright and landing in the ocean.

The pressure appears to be coming from the stock instead.

About 328 million shares became eligible for trading after SpaceX’s post-IPO lockup expired on Sept. 24, potentially adding fresh selling pressure. President Gwynne Shotwell also recently sold $52.5 million in shares under a pre-arranged trading plan.

In other words, Starship delivered good news into a market already dealing with a much larger supply of tradable shares.

First orbital flight of Starship successful! https://t.co/xVNsnUKTm0

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 28, 2026

What’s Next for SpaceX Stock?

For now, traders appear focused on $150.

Around 22,700 call contracts are open at that strike for Friday’s expiry, according to OptionCharts. Puts are concentrated around $140.

Analysts remain divided. MoffettNathanson has a Neutral rating with a $142 target, while the average analyst target stands at $222.42.

Starship has now removed one major technical doubt. The next fight is over whether SpaceX’s current valuation has already priced that success in.