6 Nobel Economists vs. Ripple's Chairman: Who Wins California's Billionaire Tax Fight?

Six Nobel Prize-winning economists endorsed California’s Proposition 40 on September 19. This measure would place a one-time 5% tax on the wealth of the state’s billionaires.

The measure reaches the November 3 ballot with about $100 billion at stake, and Ripple Labs executive chair Chris Larsen has already spent more than $10 million to defeat it.

A $2.3 Trillion Case for the California Billionaire Tax

The letter came from Daron Acemoglu, Abhijit Banerjee, Peter Diamond, Esther Duflo, Paul Krugman, and Joseph Stiglitz. All six hold the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences.

They wrote that California’s wealthiest 0.001% held a combined $700 billion ten years ago. That same sliver of the population now holds $2.3 trillion, which matches the annual income of roughly 20 million California taxpayers.

The economists also calculated that billionaires paid state income tax equal to 1.6% of their $1.4 trillion wealth gain between 2019 and 2025. Ordinary paychecks, they argued, face higher effective rates than that.

“A one-time tax of 5% on the wealth of California’s 250 billionaires would raise as much revenue as a 5% income tax on all Californian taxpayers: about $100 billion. The wealth tax would be modest relative to the gains made by billionaires, yet large enough to offset the federal cuts to Medicaid,” the letter read.

Acemoglu has pressed billionaires directly before. In July, he challenged Elon Musk to give away close to $1 trillion by 2036, and Musk replied that he would do something along those lines. Forbes currently values Musk at $946.5 billion.

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Ripple’s Bet Against Prop 40

The measure has also drawn organized opposition from the fortunes it would tax. Golden State Promise, one of the committees against Proposition 40, received $5 million from Larsen, and Ripple Labs matched that with $5 million of its own, Fortune reported.

He also routed $10 million to Building a Better California, a PAC formed earlier this year to fight the measure. Larsen has reason to spend. Forbes values him at $8.4 billion, which would leave him facing roughly $420 million under a 5% levy.

Venture capitalist John Doerr contributed $7.5 million to the same committee. Sergey Brin, the world’s fifth-richest man, shifted a large share of his holdings out of the state late last year, and his spending against the tax now totals $102 million.

Meanwhile, Building a Better California has backed two initiatives of its own, Proposition 41 and Proposition 42, and either one cancels the billionaire tax by drawing more votes, even if voters approve the tax as well.

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