Elon Musk Says AI Will Double US Growth to 4%: Can It?

Elon Musk said artificial intelligence (AI) will roughly double US economic growth next year, taking it from about 2% to about 4%.

The number sits far above the official outlook. Federal Reserve policymakers put 2027 growth at 2.4% in projections released on September 16.

My guess is that AI roughly doubles US GDP growth next year from ~2% to ~4%. Maybe even more.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 18, 2026

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Musk’s 4% Call Sits Far Above the Fed and Recent Growth Data

The starting point he named is close to the record. Real GDP grew at a 1.5% annual rate in the second quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. The first quarter came in at 2.1%.

Fed officials see 2.3% growth this year and 2.4% next year. They put the economy’s long run potential at 2.0%. A 4% year would be the fastest expansion since the technology boom of the late 1990s.

So far, AI’s clearest mark on the economy is spending rather than output. Chips, data centers and power plants have absorbed enormous corporate budgets. That buildout has shaped which AI stocks investors favor this year.

Newsom Orders AI Audits as Hinton Warns Congress on Timing

Musk’s forecast comes as officials in two capitals move to slow the same technology down. California Governor Gavin Newsom signed an executive order on Thursday advancing an AI kill switch, a mechanism that would let a model be shut down.

BREAKING: I just signed an EXECUTIVE ORDER to dramatically accelerate independent oversight of AI companies and advance the creation of an “AI kill switch.”With Donald Trump and Congress failing to lead, California is stepping up to keep all Americans safe. pic.twitter.com/7ydkG0fdQM

— Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) September 18, 2026

The order tells leading AI firms to host independent auditors inside their labs. An expert group has two months to propose stronger safety laws.

In Washington, Nobel laureate Geoffrey Hinton told lawmakers on Wednesday that time is short.

“Maybe a year, but not much more than a year,” NBC News reported, citing Hinton.

Hinton spoke after a closed briefing on Capitol Hill. BeInCrypto reported last week that Congress had already left AI safety to company executives.

Neither the Fed nor the Bureau of Economic Analysis has moved its outlook toward Musk’s number. The third quarter GDP estimate is the next official reading against which the forecast can be measured.