Bitcoin Looks Resilient After 2 Blows, The On-Chain Data Disagrees
Bitcoin (BTC) faced two blows in 48 hours: a Fed rate hike and a failed Senate vote. Its price held. A key level did not.
Glassnode had set the week’s test in advance. A second daily close below the True Market Mean would turn a slip into a break. Wednesday delivered it.
The News Landed Softly. The Range Broke Anyway.
The CLARITY Act failed to advance in the Senate on September 15. The bill would have settled which US regulator oversees digital assets, and traders had treated it as a tailwind.
Bitcoin funds shed $450.33 million that day. Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum products lost $592 million in combined outflows, marking the deepest single-day ETF outflows in months.
The Fed hit next. Policymakers raised the target range to 3.75%-4.00% in a unanimous vote. Projections showed 16 of 18 officials now expect another hike this year.
Bitcoin rose on that news rather than falling. The move took minutes, carrying the price from about $75,350 to above $76,100 once the statement landed.
BTC traded near $76,297 at press time, up 0.58% over 24 hours and down 2.5% on the week.
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Markets had priced both outcomes before they landed. That is why the tape barely moved. The damage showed up in the daily closes instead. Bitcoin price finished Wednesday at $76,187, marking a second straight close below the True Market Mean of $76,700.
That level reflects the average price paid by investors who are still active in the market. It has floored Bitcoin’s range since late August.
Price pierced it twice before, on August 23 and September 10, and recovered both times. Losing it once was a slip. Losing it twice makes it a break.
“That leaves price just under the bottom of the range it has held since late August,” Glassnode said. “The next cost basis down is the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $71.3K, the average price paid for coins bought in the last five months.”
The Money Stopped Arriving Before the Vote
The rally that built the range ran on new capital, and that capital has stopped showing up. Realized Cap, which values every coin at the price it last moved, rose for 27 straight days through September 14. It turned negative on September 15.
The vote alone does not explain the turn. ETF demand had already faded the week before. Spot Bitcoin funds shed roughly $334 million between September 8 and 14.
Nothing has replaced that money since. Stablecoin supply is the cash that funds the next leg. It sits flat over the week near $301 billion.
The buyers who carried 2025 are gone, too. Listed companies bought about 5,900 BTC over three months, against 89,000 BTC in July 2025 alone.
Their average entry near $80,500 now sits above the spot. That leaves the group underwater and unlikely to step in.
Options traders, meanwhile, read the same shift. One-week skew flipped from paying for upside to paying for downside within hours of the Senate result.
What’s Next For Bitcoin Price?
Not everyone reads the week as a break. On-chain analyst Willy Woo puts the odds that the low is already set at 90%.
“I put the probability the bottom is in at 90%. We are in an early bull market structure based on long-term investor liquidity returning,” he said.
That call rests on the return of long-term liquidity. ETF flows, stablecoins, and treasuries have all moved in the opposite direction.
Seasonality, meanwhile, gives the bulls some cover. Analysts have called September a “nothing month” for Bitcoin, with October the point at which many expect a bottom.
Until then, the levels set the range of outcomes. The ceiling sits between $83,000 and $86,000, where long-term holder supply is heaviest. Resting bids reach down to roughly $68,000, and below that the book thins until about $61,000.
Two daily closes back above $76,700 would restore the range, but only with new capital behind them. Without it, $71,300 and the $62,000-$65,000 floor determine how deep this goes.
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