Every Bitcoin Bottom Since 2012 Hit This Zone: We’re Not There Yet.

Bitcoin (BTC) trades near $67,002, and on-chain data from Glassnode shows the long-term holder cohort is signaling more downside before this bear market prints a cycle low.

Three Glassnode charts point in the same direction. Holders carrying coins for over 155 days appear stressed. Yet they have not reached the pain levels that historically marked the floor of past Bitcoin cycles.

Long-Term Holder NUPL Slides Into the Historical Bottom Zone

Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (LTH NUPL) sits near 0.25 (red circle). That reading marks the upper edge of the orange band that has framed every prior cycle floor.

Historically, every prior touch of this zone aligned with the lowest BTC prices of the cycle (blue zones). The 2012, 2015, 2019, and 2022 bottoms all formed inside the orange band.

Meanwhile, the signal has not flipped to accumulation yet. NUPL must push deeper into the orange or red band, similar to past cycle bottoms.

Long-Term Holder Supply Just Hit a New All-Time High

While NUPL signals near-term pain, the supply held by long-term holders has quietly printed a fresh all-time high. The cohort now controls roughly 15 million BTC, the highest figure on record.

This pattern repeats in every cycle. During the mid-phase of a Bitcoin bear market, long-term holders absorb coins from short-term sellers.

They then distribute that supply into the next uptrend, often months or years later. The current rhythm of accumulation suggests the cohort sees value here, even as price corrects further.

However, this same setup confirms the broader market is still in the bearish leg. Long-term holders rarely sell into weakness. The current selling pressure is coming from a younger, less conviction-driven cohort.

BTC Price Could Test $56,000 Before True Capitulation

The third Glassnode chart frames the magnitude question. Bitcoin LTH Relative Unrealized Loss sits at 15.5%. Roughly 15 cents of every dollar in long-term holder portfolios is underwater.

Cycle bottoms in 2019 and 2022 pushed this metric above 50%. Therefore, the distance between today’s reading and that historical floor signals the bear has further to run. Glassnode wrote on X:

“At $69.5k, LTH Relative Unrealized Loss sits at 15.5%. For every dollar long-term holders’ bags are worth today, they are carrying roughly 15 cents in unrealized loss. At cyclical extremes, that number has exceeded 50 cents on the dollar. Stress is present, but the long-term holder base remains far from the levels of pain that have historically marked cycle lows.”

A drawdown into the $56,000 zone would lift relative unrealized loss toward 30 to 40%. That area marks a critical long-term support cluster and would put on-chain stress in line with early phases of past capitulations.

A deeper flush to the $44,000 area cannot be ruled out if NUPL slides into the red zone. Reclaiming $105,000 would invalidate this bearish thesis by pushing long-term holders back into broad profit. Such a move would echo the rare signal seen at past cycle reversals.

BTC trades down 11.6% over the past week and 36.3% over the past year. Based on long-term holder data, the path of least resistance points lower before higher.