Wintermute Calls Ethereum ‘Wrong Asset for Macro’ as ETH/BTC Hits 10-Month Low

Wintermute says Ethereum (ETH) is the “wrong asset for this macro” after ETH fell 10.2% last week. In addition, the ETH/BTC ratio collapsed to 0.0275, its lowest reading since July 2025.

The market maker noted that Ethereum continues to lag across both spot and derivatives markets. Several additional indicators also pointed to a bearish outlook for ETH.

“ETH -10.2%, continuing to underperform across spot and derivatives. ETH/BTC pressing 0.0275, funding softer, relative implied vol elevated. Wrong asset for this macro,” the post read.

Ethereum Binance Reserves Climb as Sell-Side Liquidity Builds

Institutional demand for Ethereum slowed sharply last week, with spot Ethereum ETFs recording $255 million in outflows. This marked their largest weekly withdrawal since late January. The weakness was not isolated to ETH, as spot Bitcoin ETFs also registered net outflows during the same period.

Meanwhile, ETH reserves on Binance increased from 3.4 million ETH to nearly 3.8 million ETH throughout May, according to CryptoQuant data. 

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Total Ether reserves across exchanges also climbed from 14.5 million to 14.94 million over the same timeframe, signaling a rise in potential sell-side liquidity.

Bearish Positioning Could Set Up a Squeeze

Nonetheless, not all indicators are negative. Santiment wallet data showed that whales holding 1 million to 10 million ETH increased their holdings from 6.15 million to 6.54 million ETH between May 1 and May 20, accumulating roughly 390,000 ETH.

Mid-tier wallets holding 10,000 to 100,000 ETH moved in the opposite direction, cutting holdings from 27.77 million to 27.27 million ETH over the same period. The split suggests supply is consolidating into stronger hands even as short-term sellers control the tape.

In addition, analyst Darkfost highlighted that the weekly Taker Buy Sell Ratio on Binance fell to 0.91, the lowest reading since September 2023. A reading below 1 indicates sellers dominate order flow, a condition that may precede a short squeeze as positioning becomes too one-sided.

“What makes this situation interesting is that it comes as ETH continues to trade within a broad range between roughly $1,500 and $4,000, while having already corrected by around 9% over the past 7 days,” the analyst said. “The more aggressively investors position themselves on the short side, the greater the risk of a short squeeze becomes.”

Mega whale accumulation and a 0.91 Taker Buy Sell Ratio point to building pressure beneath the surface. The next move likely comes from whichever side gives up first, with macro data and Federal Reserve commentary in the coming weeks potentially acting as a trigger.

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