Over $2.6 Billion Options Expire Today — and Traders Are Betting Against the Rally

Bitcoin and Ethereum options worth over $2.6 billion expire today, with derivatives data pointing to cautious sentiment despite a week of price recovery across crypto markets.

Traders are watching whether BTC and ETH will hold their respective grounds through the settlement.

Options Data Flags Bearish Tilt

The expiry lands as Bitcoin (BTC) trades around $70,731, just above the closely watched $70,000 psychological level. Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) sits near $2,070.

Bitcoin accounts for the bulk of today’s expiry, with a notional value of approximately $2.23 billion across 31,709 open contracts.

The put-to-call ratio stands at 1.70, meaning put options (bets on lower prices) outnumber calls by a wide margin.

The maximum pain level for BTC is $69,000, roughly $1,700 below the current spot price. Max pain refers to the price at which the most options contracts expire worthless.

This level, also called strike price, often acts as a short-term gravitational pull around expiry. Therefore, as options near expiry, 08:00 UTC on Deribit, the price could pull toward this max pain level.

Ethereum’s expiry is smaller but still significant, with $398 million in notional value across 192,403 open contracts.

ETH’s put-to-call ratio is 0.90, closer to neutral, and its max pain level is $1,950, about $120 below current prices.

Selling Pressure on Calls Despite Price Gains

Options analytics platform Greeks.live noted a notable divergence between price action and derivatives positioning this week.

“The crypto market rebounded this week, with Bitcoin firmly holding above the $70,000 psychological threshold and now poised to challenge $75,000. However, options market data indicates that selling call options has dominated trading over the past two days. Despite ongoing price gains, momentum has slowed,” they wrote.

Call selling typically reflects expectations that an asset will not rise significantly further. Traders who sell calls collect premium while betting against a sustained rally. This often signals that conviction in upside momentum remains limited.

Today’s expiry represents around 7% of total open interest, which Greeks.live described as nearly the lowest level seen recently.

However, Bitcoin’s share of total open interest has reached a recent peak, underlining BTC’s outsized role in the current derivatives market.

Volatility Climbing as Sentiment Recovers Unevenly

Implied volatility (IV) has risen across both assets during the week’s rebound. BTC’s main-term IV stands at 55%, while ETH’s is 75%, reflecting heightened near-term price-swing expectations.

Higher IV during a rally can suggest that options buyers are paying more to hedge against potential reversals, not just chasing gains.

Options skew, a measure of relative demand for puts versus calls, has improved across both assets, pointing to a modest recovery in market sentiment.

However, Greeks.live cautioned that the broader picture remains bearish.

“…the market remains in a bearish phase. The current value proposition for chasing rallies is mediocre, and the bottom has yet to be confirmed,” wrote analysts at Greeks.live.

That assessment aligns with the elevated put open interest on Bitcoin, where nearly 20,000 put contracts remain open versus fewer than 12,000 calls.

Whether today’s expiry triggers a short-term volatility spike or passes quietly may depend on how close BTC and ETH prices remain to their respective max pain levels at settlement.

A significant gap between spot price and max pain can produce sharper post-expiry moves as traders reposition.