WTI extends range play around $79.00; bullish potential intact amid Mideast tensions
- WTI trades with a positive bias during the Asian session, though it lacks bullish conviction.
- Rising US-Iran tensions keep geopolitical risk premiums in play and support the commodity.
- Concerns about supply disruptions in critical waterways back the case for additional gains.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US crude oil price – edges higher during the Asian session on Friday, though it remains confined within a multi-day-old range. The commodity currently trades around the $79.35 region, up 0.50% for the day and close to a one-month high set on Tuesday, and seems poised to register gains for the second straight week amid the risk of a further escalation of US-Iran tensions.
The US military carried out a sixth consecutive night of air strikes against Iran on Thursday and also struck an empty oil tanker headed for Kharg Island as part of its renewed naval blockade on Iranian ports. Meanwhile, Iran carried out attacks on US military facilities across the region, raising fears of a return to all-out war and keeping the geopolitical risk premium in play. This is seen as a key factor that continues to act as a tailwind for crude oil prices.
Meanwhile, officials in southern Iran’s Bandar Abbas reported that civilian infrastructure – including power facilities and a train station – has been hit. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had threatened to expand the conflict by targeting additional regional energy supply routes. Furthermore, Reuters reported that Iran has asked Yemen’s Houthis to stand ready to close the Red Sea oil route, posing a potent new threat to global energy supplies.
This, along with a drop in shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, lends additional support to crude oil prices and backs the case for further gains. However, it will still be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying and a sustained breakout through a multi-day-old range before placing fresh bullish bets on the commodity. Meanwhile, the fundamental backdrop suggests that any corrective pullback is more likely to be bought into and remain cushioned.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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