US: Oil shock stalls disinflation – Wells Fargo

Wells Fargo economists highlight that the Iran conflict and higher Oil prices are reviving consumer inflation and breaking the recent disinflation trend. They now sees headline PCE peaking at 3.7% year-on-year in Q2, with core PCE stuck in a 2.7–3.1% range through 2026, and expects energy-driven pressures to spill into categories like airfares and food.

Energy shock lifts PCE trajectory

"March consumer inflation will break disinflation. Higher energy prices have fed quickly into prices at the pump, ending the two‑year disinflation trend."

"Energy-driven inflation is likely to linger and pressure other components. We now look for core PCE inflation to end the year at 2.8% on a Q4-over-Q4 basis."

"We raised our inflation outlook as the conflict in the Middle East continues. We now expect the PCE deflator to peak at 3.7% year-over-year in Q2. The energy shock should remain concentrated in oil and fuels, at least in the U.S., as domestic natural gas prices generally have remained in check. Still, higher fuel costs are likely to work their way into other categories as production and transportation expenses rise, with airfares and food most notably exposed. Moderating shelter inflation and the unwinding of tariff-related pressures should partially offset the energy shock spillover, but not fully. We now expect core PCE inflation to remain stuck between a range of 2.7-3.1% through the remainder of the year, marking an end to the gradual disinflationary trend that has underpinned the past two years."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)