EUR flat and ignoring stronger ZEW – Scotiabank

Euro (EUR) is quietly trading within an incredibly tight range, consolidating in the mid-1.15s just below its recent multi-year highs, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.

Geopolitical tensions present a modest downside risk for EUR

"Stronger than expected ZEW investor sentiment figures were released with no meaningful reaction, and we note the absence of any major economic data releases scheduled for the remainder of the week. The ECB speaking schedule remains heavy, and President Lagarde is set to speak on Thursday."

"The outlook for relative central bank policy will remain a focus as markets assess the ECB’s gradual shift to neutral and contrast it with the Fed. Geopolitical tensions present a modest downside risk for EUR, given that the EUR is a modestly pro-risk currency unlike its G4 haven peers USD and JPY."

"The trend is bullish, as EUR’s latest multi-year highs have followed a clear trend of higher lows and higher highs following its February bottom. The 50 day MA (1.1343) represents an important level of medium-term support, while major resistance appears limited ahead of the 1.1680-1.1700 area. We await a break of the latest, short-term range roughly bound between 1.15 and 1.16."