Australian Dollar remains subdued as Fed and RBA hawks collide

• AUD/USD hovers near 0.7114 despite improving Middle East sentiment.
• Fed officials keep additional tightening firmly on the table.
• RBA inflation concerns reinforce September hike expectations before PMIs.

The Aussie Dollar is poised to end Tuesday’s session unchanged versus the Greenback amid renewed hopes for an end of the Middle East conflict, while Federal Reserve officials struck a hawkish tone in their speeches. The AUD/USD trades at 0.7114, near Tuesday’s opening price.

AUD/USD goes nowhere as policy tightening signals offset easing geopolitical risks

On Tuesday, geopolitics was the driver of the session. US President Donald Trump made harsh comments about Iran but later acknowledged that negotiators from Washington and Tehran had a very productive meeting and that he prefers to make a deal.

Meanwhile, Fed officials crossed the wires, with Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stating that inflation would need time to subside and that additional rate increases might be necessary to achieve the 2% target. Meanwhile, Boston Fed Susan Collins endorsed the rate hike, cautioning about the risks of persistent high inflation and the possibility that inflation could remain above 2%.

Data-wise, the US economic docket featured the ADP Employment Change 4-week average, which rose to 20K from 16.75K, reaffirming labour market strength.

Against this backdrop, AUD/USD failed to gain ground as officials from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivered hawkish comments. RBA’s Governor Bullock said that upside risks to inflation could materialize given high energy prices. She stated that she is not signaling the path of interest rates when the board meets on September 29.

Earlier, the RBA’s Assistant Governor, Sarah Hunter, stated that rates may need to rise again as inflation becomes entrenched.

Ahead, the Aussie economic docket will feature the S&P Global Flash PMIs for September on its preliminary reading.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7115, holding a mildly bullish near-term bias as spot remains above the latest triple simple moving average at 0.7091 and the rising trend-line supports near 0.7035 and 0.6905. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 46 is neutral, suggesting momentum is consolidating rather than driving a fresh leg higher, leaving price action guided mainly by these underlying structural supports.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7115, ahead of the clustered demand zone defined by the triple simple moving average around 0.7091 and the upward trend-line levels at 0.7035 and 0.6905, with deeper historical support down at 0.6376. On the topside, initial resistance comes at the horizontal barrier at 0.7198, with a subsequent cap at the upward trend-line break around 0.7381, while more distant structural hurdles reside near 0.8700 and 0.9545.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)