EUR/USD: Gradual rise to 1.22 by year-end – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s strategy team keeps a constructive view on the Euro versus the Dollar, forecasting EUR/USD at 1.19 in Q1 2026 and a gradual rise to 1.22 by year-end. The bank sees robust US growth near 3% and a solid Euro area backdrop, but expects Fed to cut rates to 2.75% by the end of the first quarter next year, while the ECB holds at 2.0%, supporting a moderately higher EUR/USD over the forecast horizon.
Euro seen grinding higher versus Dollar
"Our economists have revised up their above-consensus US GDP forecast for 2026 further to 3.0% from 2.7%."
"ECB keeps rates unchanged at 2%, Fed cuts to 2.75% by March next year, BoE cuts to 3.25% by summer, BoJ hikes to 1.25% by year-end."
"12-Feb-26 EUR/USD 1.19 2026 Q1 1.19 Q2 1.20 Q3 1.22 Q4 1.22."
"Due to favourable financing conditions, the US economy should continue to expand solidly in 2026, but at a slightly slower pace."
"In light of the structural changes amid multiple crises (extensive state intervention, debt build-up, de-globalisation, war), the long-term prospects for sustainably higher growth should remain muted amid structurally higher inflation."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Recommended Articles
