TradingKey Daily Market Briefing: U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Boosts Global Assets, Three Major U.S. Indices Jump, Crude Oil Records Largest Single-Day Drop in Six Years.

TradingKey - Boosted by the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, the three major U.S. stock indices jumped collectively; furthermore, European stock markets recorded their largest gain since 2022.

The S&P 500 rose for the sixth consecutive session, marking its longest winning streak since last September, closing up 165.96 points, or 2.51%, at 6,782.81. The Dow gained 2.85% to 47,909.92. The Nasdaq rose 2.80% to 22,634.995. The STOXX Europe 600 index finished 3.88% higher at 613.50.

Among individual stocks: Meta shares rose as much as 9.5%, while Tesla fell about 1%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose over 6.3% to a record high. SanDisk surged nearly 10% to a new peak. Intel soared more than 11%. Airline and cruise stocks also saw sharp gains.

The U.S. dollar slumped nearly 0.7% in a single day, erasing its gains for the year 2026. Bitcoin rose as much as 3%, nearing the $73,000 mark during the day, while Ethereum climbed 5% in tandem.

Spot gold rose 0.27% to $4,719 per ounce, retreating after an earlier spike. Spot silver gained 1.56% to $74.14 per ounce. WTI crude oil futures fell more than 16%, the biggest single-day drop since the COVID-19 pandemic shock in 2020.

Market Headlines

Strait of Hormuz closed again; Iran reportedly to collect "transit fees" and limit passage. The Strait of Hormuz has closed again following Israeli strikes on Lebanon. According to Iranian media reports, Iran suspended shipping in the strait in response to Israel's strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon, forcing oil tankers to turn back. Iran reportedly plans to reinstate "transit fees," charging $1 per barrel of oil with payments required in Bitcoin (BTC), while limiting the number of daily vessel passages to 12. The White House stated that Trump opposes this move and clarified that a ceasefire is contingent upon no transit fees being levied in the strait.

US-Iran meeting schedule and divergent positions. The White House announced that the first round of US-Iran talks is scheduled for April 11 in Pakistan. Iran stated it would only meet with the US after a ceasefire is reached in Lebanon. The White House revealed that the US negotiating team will be led by Vice President Vance and include Middle East Envoy Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law Kushner, among others. The basis for negotiations accepted by the US is not the "10-point plan" previously proposed by Iran (which the US initially rejected) but a completely different, streamlined version revised by Iran. The core position maintained by the US is that "Iran must not conduct uranium enrichment on its own soil."

Trump proposes joint management of the strait and threatens additional tariffs. Trump suggested that the US could "jointly manage" the Strait of Hormuz with Iran. According to CCTV News, Trump stated the US might seek to establish a "joint project" with Iran to ensure the security of the strait. Meanwhile, Trump threatened that "any and all goods" sold to the US by any country providing military weapons to Iran would be "immediately subject to a 50% tariff," a measure that would "take effect immediately" with "no exclusions or exemptions."

Nick Timiraos says Fed rate cut prospects look bleak. Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed Whisperer," stated that the outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts appears bleak regardless of whether a ceasefire agreement is reached. He noted that a US-Iran ceasefire might simply replace one problem with another: an energy shock lasting just long enough to drive up inflation but not long enough to severely disrupt demand could ultimately lead to interest rates staying higher for longer. If the risk of a recession caused by the Iran conflict was the strongest argument for the Fed to resume rate cuts, then the ceasefire itself might actually make it harder for the Fed to ease policy in the short term. At the same time, a ceasefire also reduces the likelihood of further Fed rate hikes.

Meta releases first AI model Muse Spark. Meta released Muse Spark, its first major AI model, viewed as the initial fruit of its $15 billion gamble. This model is the first launched since Meta established its "Super Intelligence Lab" and the first since poaching Scale AI founder Alexandr Wang to lead the team last year. Deviating from its previous open-source approach, Meta has made Muse Spark closed-source, focusing on miniaturization and high-speed computation; it will be directly embedded into social media platforms like Facebook, with an emphasis on AI shopping assistant features. Meta admitted that its overall performance still lags behind leading competitors like ChatGPT and positioned the model as a "starting point model." Boosted by the news, Meta's stock price surged as much as 9.5% at one point.

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