British Pound edges higher as USD softens ahead US jobs data

• GBP/USD rises modestly as Dollar softens before US data.
• Iran tensions lift Oil, keeping inflation and Fed risks alive.
• US jobs data and BoE hearings drive next catalysts.

The Pound Sterling advances during the North American session, up a modest 0.09%, as the Greenback edges lower despite last Friday’s hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Warsh, ahead of a packed week of economic data from the United States (US). The GBP/USD trades at 1.3549.

GBP/USD steadies as traders weigh Warsh, Oil risks and upcoming data

Sentiment shifted sour as tensions between the US and Iran rose, driving energy prices higher. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude Oil benchmark, hit $85.56 per barrel, up some 2.50% after reaching a high of $86.79.

Attacks between both countries decreased the likelihood of free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran attacked US assets in Jordan and the UAE. Consequently, US President Trump said that retaliation is coming, he said to Fox News.

On Friday, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh recognized that inflation remains above the central bank’s target and is a priority, after assuring that the jobs market is solid.

After his speech, money markets had priced in a 64% chance of a rate increase for the September 16 meeting. Meanwhile, traders eye the release of Nonfarm Payroll figures on Friday, September 4, followed by inflation data a week before the Federal Reserve’s next meeting.

On Tuesday, the US economic docket will release figures on manufacturing activity, namely the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August, which is expected to show a deceleration from 55.6 to 55.2. Also, traders will eye the release of JOLTS Job Openings for July, which are expected to show the strength of the labour market.

In the UK, domestic developments regarding new PM Andy Burnham's Autumn Budget, along with US Dollar dynamics, will provide direction for GBP/USD. Also, market participants would be keen to digest the Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Hearings ahead of BoE Governor Andrew Bailey's speech on September 4.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3550, keeping a bullish near-term bias as the pair holds above the cluster of reclaimed structural levels and the triple simple moving average (50, 100, 200) around 1.3429. The break above the former descending resistance line with a key reference at 1.3385 and the downtrend line that previously capped gains near 1.3482 suggests buyers remain in control, while a Relative Strength Index (14) reading near 54 hints at steady, but not overstretched, momentum.

On the downside, immediate support is located at the recent pivot area around 1.3550, followed by the former trend-line barriers now turned floors at 1.3482 and 1.3385, with the triple SMA and an additional rising support line clustered in the 1.3409–1.3429 region reinforcing the medium-term base. On the topside, the next notable resistance aligns with the broken rising trend line around 1.3644, where a rejection would signal consolidation, while a sustained break higher would open the way for a continuation of the broader bullish advance.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)