Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC climbs above $76,000 as ETF inflows, Strategy buying offset US-Iran uncertainty

• Bitcoin price trades above $76,000 on Tuesday after gaining nearly 3% the previous day.
• US-listed spot ETFs recorded an inflow of over $238 million while Strategy added 34,164 BTC to its reserve on Monday.
• Investors remain cautious amid uncertainty surrounding the second round of US–Iran peace talks in Pakistan.

Bitcoin (BTC) trades in green above $76,000 on Tuesday after gaining nearly 3% in the previous day. The bullish price action is further supported by rising institutional and corporate demand. Meanwhile, traders remain cautious amid uncertainty surrounding the second round of US–Iran peace talks in Pakistan, which could shape the short-term risk sentiment toward the Crypto King.

Geopolitical developments likely to shape short-term risk sentiment

Bitcoin price started the week on a positive note, with the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization closing above $75,840 on Monday.

US President Donald Trump announced that US negotiators will travel to Pakistan for another round of negotiations with Iran, aiming to extend a fragile ceasefire that is set to expire on Wednesday. 

Iranian officials, on the other hand, are hesitant about further peace talks, citing the US blockade. In fact, Iranian Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said that Iran will not accept negotiations while under threat. Moreover, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that continued violations of the ceasefire ‌by the US are a major obstacle to continuing the diplomatic process. Reports, however, suggest that an Iranian delegation will travel to Islamabad for negotiations.

Market participants remain focused on incoming headlines surrounding the US-Iran saga, with geopolitical developments likely to shape short-term risk sentiment. Meanwhile, BTC continues to trade higher on Tuesday, above $76,000 at the time of writing. 

“In addition to developments around the US–Iran ceasefire, markets are turning their attention to the upcoming appearance by Kevin Warsh”, reports QCP’s capital report on Monday.

The analyst noted, “The Fed Chair nominee is set to testify before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday at 10 am ET, with markets focused on his outlook for rates and the broader economy. His remarks may serve as a near-term catalyst, particularly if they reinforce expectations of policy easing at a time when geopolitical risks remain unresolved.”

Institutional and corporate demand lifts BTC price

Institutional demand started the week on a positive note, supporting Bitcoin’s price. SoSoValue data show that spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded inflows of $238.37 million on Monday, following a $996.38 million positive flow last week. If these inflows continue and intensify, BTC could see further rally ahead.

On the corporate side, Michael Saylor announced on X on Monday that his firm, Strategy (MSTR), had purchased 34,164 BTC for $2.54 billion. This purchase has brought the firm’s total holdings to 815,061 BTC, highlighting its continued aggressive accumulation strategy.

In addition, the firm’s average purchase price across all its Bitcoin holdings is $75,527, which is below BTC’s current market price, indicating unrealized profit and reinforcing confidence in its long-term accumulation strategy.

Bitcoin Price Forecast: Is 80,000 the next target?

Bitcoin is trading above $76,000 on Tuesday, after rallying nearly 3% from the previous day. BTC is maintaining a constructive bullish bias as it holds above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at $72,119 and $75,320, respectively, and trades above the upper band of the horizontal channel at $75,680. 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is around 61, and a still-positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) backdrop suggests buyers retain control, even as upside momentum has started to cool after the recent break above the short-term resistance cluster around $75,680.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 50% retracement of the latest swing, drawn from the January high to the February low, at $78,962, followed by the psychological $80,000 handle and the 200-day EMA at about $82,875, with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $83,437 and horizontal resistance at $84,410 forming a thicker supply zone higher up. 

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the channel top near $75,680, ahead of the 100-day EMA at $75,320 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $74,487, while deeper pullbacks would look toward the 50-day EMA at $72,119 and the 23.6% Fiboancci retracement around $68,950 as more substantive demand levels within the broader uptrend.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)