Bailey speech: Trade tariff impact on inflation is more ambiguous than impact on economic growth
While testifying before the Lords Economic Affairs Committee on Tuesday, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey said the impact of trade tariffs on inflation is more ambiguous than the impact on economic growth, per Reuters.
Key quotes
"Big turnaround overnight with the oil price."
"Very unpredictable where US import tariffs are going to end up."
"Market volatility in April meant we were looking globally at a difficult situation."
"Saw a lot of short-term market positioning changes in April."
"There was no point when there was real stress in markets in April."
"We are seeing investors reassessing overweight position in US assets."
"I think we are starting to see labour market softening."
"Wage settlements are likely to come off."
"NICS increase for employers seems to be affecting labour market."
Market reaction
GBP/USD preserves its bullish momentum on Tuesday and was last seen rising 0.7% on the day at 1.3620.
BoE FAQs
The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP).
When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling.
In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.
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