China: Exports rise for the third consecutive month in June – UOB Group

China’s exports rose for the third straight month in Jun but imports unexpectedly contracted. The low base effect will continue to support a strong headline export growth in 3Q24, UOB Group Economist Ho Woei Chen notes.

China’s exports rise, imports decline

“China’s exports rose for the third straight month in Jun but imports unexpectedly contracted. As a result, the trade surplus rose to a record high of US$99.05 bn.”

“The 2Q24 GDP due for release on Mon (15 Jul) is forecast to moderate after turning stronger in 1Q24. The sustained recovery in external demand as seen in the Jun exports, may help to offset a more lackluster domestic consumption and investment.”

“The low base effect will continue to support a strong headline export growth in 3Q24 while measures to increase domestic consumption and industrial modernization could help boost import demand ahead. We retain our forecast for China’s export and import growth in 2024 at 7.0% (2023: -4.6%) and 6.0% (2023: -5.5%) respectively.”