IMF’s Georgieva says already seeing first wave of impact from AI
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Monday that she’s already seeing first wave of impact from Artificial Intelligence (AI).
Key quotes
We are already seeing first wave of impact from AI; it is a demand shock, an investment shock.
US, China and India are most important AI producers; investments are keeping world growth at around 3%.
AI could boost growth in asia between 0.5 to 1 percentage point.
Even in emerging asia AI could boost growth between 0.2 to 0.8 percentage point.
We estimate that over time, AI could lead to 40% of jobs being augmented, downgraded or eliminated.
We are already seeing some impact in advanced economies.
Biggest worry is impact on young people entering job market in routine, repetitive jobs.
Growth of AI could change structure of labor market, raise questions about how governments generate tax revenue.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
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