Australian Dollar declines ahead of China CPI data
- AUD/USD loses ground ahead of the release of China's key May inflation data (CPI and PPI).
- The US Dollar edges higher as renewed Middle East tensions fuel risk aversion.
- Strong US May jobs data boosted expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike this year.
AUD/USD extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around 0.7020 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. Traders will likely await the release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data for May from China, Australia’s close trading partner, due later in the day. Focus will be shifted toward the US May CPI inflation data due later in the North American session.
The AUD/USD pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) inches higher on increased risk aversion following renewed tensions in the Middle East. Reuters reported on Tuesday that the US launched strikes against Iran after US President Donald Trump said Tehran had shot down a US Apache helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz. Early Tuesday, Trump emphasized that Iran and the US are close to an agreement, though there have been few signs of progress since a tenuous ceasefire took effect in early April.
Uncertainty surrounding the Middle East peace deal continues to fuel concerns over inflation and expectations of elevated interest rates. Stronger-than-expected US May jobs data have boosted expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike this year.
Australian consumer confidence fell deeper into negative territory, with the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index dropping roughly 3% to 80.6 in June. This marks the fourth decline this year, keeping sentiment at some of its lowest levels in decades.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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