Forex Today: Oil surge and weak Eurozone PMIs drive markets as US Dollar firms
Here is what you need to know for Wednesday, March 25:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading around the 99.50 region, experiencing a relative surge as rising United States (US) Treasury yields and hawkish Fed expectations offset mixed risk sentiment. Elevated Oil prices reinforce inflation concerns, supporting the Greenback.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.26% | 0.40% | 0.37% | 0.28% | 0.61% | 0.71% | 0.59% | |
| EUR | -0.26% | 0.11% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.36% | 0.45% | 0.33% | |
| GBP | -0.40% | -0.11% | -0.02% | -0.08% | 0.23% | 0.33% | 0.22% | |
| JPY | -0.37% | -0.09% | 0.02% | -0.05% | 0.27% | 0.38% | 0.25% | |
| CAD | -0.28% | -0.02% | 0.08% | 0.05% | 0.32% | 0.42% | 0.30% | |
| AUD | -0.61% | -0.36% | -0.23% | -0.27% | -0.32% | 0.10% | -0.04% | |
| NZD | -0.71% | -0.45% | -0.33% | -0.38% | -0.42% | -0.10% | -0.12% | |
| CHF | -0.59% | -0.33% | -0.22% | -0.25% | -0.30% | 0.04% | 0.12% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD fell near the 1.1580 zone, finding some support from a softer Dollar at times but pressured by weak Eurozone PMI data. The near stagnation in services activity capped upside and highlighted slowing growth momentum in the bloc.
GBP/USD plummeted to near the 1.3385 region. The Pound was weighed down by rising cost pressure and slowing United Kingdom (UK) business activity, as PMI-related inflation concerns intensified alongside the global energy shock.
USD/JPY remained elevated near the 159.00 area, supported by higher US yields. The Yen remained under pressure amid policy divergence, though intermittent risk-off sentiment provided mild support.
AUD/USD bottomed out at 0.6940, benefiting from USD softness in some parts of the session. However, gains were capped as global growth concerns triggered by weak PMIs and rising energy costs limited risk appetite.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil surged toward $92 per barrel, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and supply risks linked to disruptions in key shipping routes. The rally reinforced inflation fears and became the key driver of global markets.
Gold trades in a tight, range-bound tone at $4,406, struggling to capitalize fully on safe-haven demand after Monday’s drop to $4,098. While geopolitical risks offered support, higher yields and a resilient US Dollar limited upside momentum.
What’s next in the docket:
Wednesday, March 25:
- Australia Consumer Price Index (Feb).
- United Kingdom Inflation Data (CPI, PPI, RPI).
- Switzerland ZEW Survey – Expectations (Mar).
- Germany IFO Business Climate (Mar).
- Switzerland SNB Quarterly Bulletin (Q1).
Thursday, March 26:
- Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (Apr).
- Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (Q4).
- Germany Bundesbank Monthly Report.
- United States Initial Jobless Claims.
- New Zealand ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (Mar).
Friday, March 27:
- UK March Consumer Confidence.
- UK February Retail Sales.
- Eurozone March Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices Prel.
- US March Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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