Crude Oil rebounds above $90 as market doubts grow

• WTI rebounded roughly 3% on Tuesday as Iran denies diplomatic progress and the war premium floods back into Crude Oil markets.
• Trump postponed strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days, citing "productive conversations" with Tehran.
• Iran has denied that any negotiations are taking place.
• The Pentagon is preparing to deploy 3,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne to the region.

WTI Crude Oil bounced roughly 3% on Tuesday, recovering to above $90.00/barrel after Monday's brutal 11% sell-off. The session produced a wide intraday range, with price dipping to near $89 in early trading before buyers drove a sharp V-shaped recovery to about $93, only to fade back near $91 by the close. The whiplash price action reflected a market still caught between ceasefire optimism and the physical reality of a near-total supply shutdown through the world's most critical Oil chokepoint.

Monday's crash was sparked by President Trump's Truth Social post claiming "very good and productive conversations" with Iran and a five-day postponement of strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure. The post briefly wiped out a significant chunk of the war premium that has built in since US-Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28. Iran's parliament speaker dismissed the claims as disinformation aimed at manipulating oil markets, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reiterated it would keep the Strait of Hormuz closed indefinitely and respond in kind to any attacks on energy infrastructure.

At the same time, the Pentagon is preparing to deploy roughly 3,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East on top of the 50,000 already in the region, signaling that the US is building ground-operations capability even as it tests the diplomatic waters.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has described the Hormuz closure as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, with flows through the strait collapsing from around 20 million barrels per day to a trickle. IEA member nations agreed on March 11 to release a record 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, though executive director Fatih Birol stressed that reopening the strait is the only lasting solution.

Goldman Sachs raised its WTI forecasts to $98 for March and $105 for April, warning that if Hormuz flows stay at 5% of normal through April 10, prices are likely to keep grinding higher. Traders are now watching two near-term flashpoints: reports that the US and regional mediators are discussing high-level peace talks with Iran as early as Thursday, and the March 28 deadline when Trump's five-day strike postponement expires.

WTI 5-minute chart

Technical Analysis

In the 5-minute chart, WTI US OIL trades at $90.87. Price holds just beneath the gently rising 200-period exponential moving average around $91.02, keeping the very short-term tone mildly bearish after failing to sustain earlier highs above $92.50. The recent pullback unfolded with Stochastic RSI dropping from overbought extremes into mid-range, showing fading upside momentum rather than aggressive selling pressure. With price oscillating close to the long-term intraday average and momentum stabilizing near the middle of its range, the near-term bias turns neutral with a slight downside tilt while the market digests the prior advance.

Immediate resistance aligns with the 200-EMA near $91.00, with a break above exposing further recovery toward $91.60 and then $92.20. On the downside, initial support comes in around $90.50, protecting a deeper retracement toward $90.10 and then $89.60 if intraday selling resumes. A sustained move above the 200-EMA would weaken the bearish bias and favor a return to the upper $91s, while failure below $90.50 would confirm that sellers remain in control of the short-term structure.

In the daily chart, WTI US OIL trades at $90.88. The near-term bias is bullish as price holds well above the rising 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, confirming that the recent pullback from the $98 area is a correction within an established uptrend. Momentum has cooled from overbought territory, with the Stochastic RSI retreating from readings near 90 toward the mid-30s, indicating that upside pressure has eased but not yet flipped into outright bearish control. As long as price remains above the shorter EMA cluster, dips are likely to attract buying interest rather than signal a trend reversal.

Initial support emerges near $88.00, just above the rising 50-day EMA around $75.65 and well clear of the 200-day EMA near $66.60, which defines a broader bullish floor. A deeper decline would eye the $80.00 area as intermediate support before exposing the stronger demand zone closer to the 200-day average. On the upside, immediate resistance is located at $95.00, with a break opening the way toward the recent high near $99.00. A daily close above that upper barrier would confirm a continuation of the bullish trend, while sustained trading below $88.00 would warn of a broader consolidation phase rather than a straightforward extension higher.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)